Winter Storm Warning Starts at 6pm Today. Preparing for Dangerous Cold and Travel Impacts.

Our Winter Storm Watch has been upped to a Winter Storm Warning, valid from 6pm tonight thru 6am Tuesday. Although our impacts will last beyond Tuesday AM.

Our most likely snowfall totals remain around 3 – 4″. This is still subject to change, higher or lower.

The narrow band(s) of heavier snowfall is expected to be south of us, in the 4 – 6″ area. However, this band(s) could shift north or south, raising or lowering our totals.

Looking for our “boom” and “bust” scenarios, the Euro illustrates our “bust” potential at 0.5″ – 1.5″. The SREF Ensemble continues to represent our “boom” scenario with 6 – 7″. Although these scenarios are not likely, they are also not impossible. Currently, our most likely outcome is 3 – 4″.

Timing

ETA of our first flakes appears to be around ~5/6pm. Snow is expected to continue throughout the majority of the night, tapering off a bit Monday morning. We may get a break Monday morning thru about midday, with more snow Monday afternoon/evening. Snow should end after sunset Monday.

Above is the latest (12z) HRRR model. This is just one run of one model, and it could be off, other models think differently. This is just meant to give you a general idea of what the radar *could* look like. Timing is subject to change.

Impacts

With temperatures expected to be well below freezing throughout the duration of the event, once the snow starts falling, it will not have much problem accumulating, including on roads. Even if we do end up on the lower end of our forecasted snow totals, travel will still be negatively impacted.

Road conditions will start to deteriorate this evening as the snow starts, worsening overnight and into Monday.

There is no way of knowing how ‘x’ road will be at ‘y’ time. If you don’t have to get out, the best bet would be to stay off the roads. However, if you have to travel, you know your vehicles’ limit best, please don’t push them. Generally speaking, “major” roads such as interstates will be in better conditions than backroads, but better doesn’t mean clear.

Ice and Snow, Take It Slow. Did you know? Each year in the United States, there are over 1,000 deaths and 100,000 injuries due to vehicle crashes during winter weather. Clean off your vehicle before driving. Flying snow from cars causes accidents. Keep it slow, and don’t use cruise control. Roads can be slick even if they just look wet. Leave extra distance between vehicles. Stay especially far from snow plows.

If you do drive, please clear any snow off your vehicle and take it slow.

BNA is equipped to deal with snow, but we have no way of knowing if your flight will be delayed/canceled. We also don’t comment on school closures, sorry kiddos/hopeful teachers.

Along with the impacts from snow, we will also be dealing with dangerous cold temperatures. We fell below 32° last night and we won’t get back above freezing until sometime Thursday, ~100 consecutive hours of below freezing. We likely will not see much melting until Thursday.

Tuesday and Wednesday mornings will be our coldest, with wind chill values around -5 to -10°. A Wind Chill Advisory may be needed. Wind chill values are expected to stay in the teens/single digits during the day Monday and Tuesday.

If going outside, make sure to dress in multiple warm layers. Frostbite and hypothermia can set in quickly.

If someone might have frostbite or hypothermia, seek medical attention immediately! Get to a warm area. Remove wet clothing. Warm up with dry layers of blankets or clothing. Place skin affected by frostbite in warm water (not hot). Frostbite caution: do not use fireplaces or artificial heat sources for warming. Do not rub or put pressure on areas with frostbite.

Remember the 4 P’s – people, pets, pipes and plants.

Below are some things to consider doing in preparation for the cold:

*Changes to the forecast are possible, it’s important to stay connected throughout the day.* We’ll be tweeting as needed and have another blog out this evening.


Another system is possible Thursday night/Friday AM, bringing another chance of wintry precip. Accumulation/impacts are unknown at this time. We probably won’t get above freezing Friday or Saturday.

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Winter Storm Watch Sunday Evening - Tuesday AM, Prepping for Dangerous Cold + Travel Impacts

Overnight tonight a cold front will swing thru, bringing in our very cold air. Along the front, there could be some flurries. Areas north of I-40 could see a dusting, no major impacts expected.

Both of our counties are under a Winter Storm Watch from Sunday evening thru Tuesday morning. This will likely be changed to a Winter Storm Warning later tonight or tomorrow.

Confidence has increased that we will see accumulating snowfall.

As of Saturday evening, our most likely snowfall totals look to range from 3 – 4″. *This could change, higher or lower.*

An enhanced band(s) of snow could produce higher snowfall totals, in the 5 – 6″ range, but where this band(s) form is unknown.

Looking thru the models trying to find the “bust” and “boom” scenarios, the GFS and Euro have both been all over the place, per usual with snow events. Recent GFS and EURO runs seem to represent our “bust” scenario with 1 – 2″. For our “boom” scenario, the SREF Ensemble shows a possibility of 6 – 7″. Neither of these solutions are the most likely scenario, but they are possible. The most likely outcome is currently forecasted to be 3 – 4″.

Timing:

Short-range models are in a decent amount of agreement that snow will start sometime Sunday evening.

Here’s a look at the HRRR model above. This is just one run of one model. Most short-range models agree that it will be snowing most of the day Monday. Try not to pay too much attention to the specific timing, this is just meant to give a general idea of what the radar *could* look like. This could change!

Models generally agree that snow will be mostly gone from our area by Monday night/early Tuesday morning.

Impacts:

With temperatures being well below freezing throughout the entire event, it won’t take much for snow to accumulate, including on roads. Road conditions could begin to start deteriorating starting Sunday evening, worsening throughout the Monday.

With temperatures expected to stay below freezing until Thursday, very little melting will occur until then. Sun on Wednesday will help a bit, but temperatures will dip back below freezing Wednesday night.

There is no way of knowing exactly how ‘x’ road will be at ‘y’ time. Generally speaking, if you don’t have to get out, probably just best to stay home. You know your vehicle best, it’s best not to push it past the limit.

We also do not know about flight impacts. The airport is equipped for dealing with snow, but there is no way of telling if your flight will be delayed/canceled. School questions are also not answered.

Pictured: A truck tire with snow between the treads. Text: Trucks & SUVs can lose traction in ice and snow. Even four-wheel drive vehicles can lose traction in bad weather. All vehicles are susceptible to ice and snow. Know your limits.

Dangerous Cold:

At some point tonight we will fall below freezing and we are not expected to get above freezing until Thursday afternoon, leaving us with ~100 hours below freezing.

Coldest temperatures will occur Monday + Tuesday nights when our wind chill values could get as low as -5 to -10 degrees.

Some things to consider doing tonight in preparation would be…

The more prep done, the better you’ll feel.

*The forecast could change*, so it’s important to stay connected for any updates. There are no guarantees, especially with winter weather here. We’ll keep you posted.

And yes, there is another chance of more frozen precip later in the week. Let’s just get past this event first.

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Wind Advisory Remains Thru Midnight, Dangerous Cold Arrives Sunday, Discussing Snow Probabilities

A majority of the rain has moved out. Can’t rule out a few scattered showers this afternoon/evening, but our severe threat is over.

We still have a Wind Advisory thru midnight tonight, wind gusts up to 45 – 55 mph will be possible.

Could see a few flurries flying later tonight, but no accumulation expected.

Saturday will be cold and mostly dry. High temps in the low 40s.

The HRRR model, shown below, hints at some wintry mix Saturday night.

Other models don’t show this, so confidence is fairly low in this, but worth keeping an eye on. Temps are forecasted to be near freezing at this time.

Below Freezing Temps Sat Night – Thurs. Afternoon

Temperatures are forecast to go below the freezing mark Saturday night and are not expected to get back above freezing until sometime Thursday afternoon. Gross.

Low temperatures in the teens and single digits will be common early to mid next week.

Wind chill values below zero are possible, especially Monday/Tuesday night and Tuesday/Wednesday morning.

Get ready to bundle up! Sub-zero degree Wind Chills expected Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.

A Wind Chill Advisory may be needed for these dangerous temperatures.

Now is the time to start prepping exposed pipes, making accommodations for outdoor pets, and checking in on friends/neighbors who may not have adequate heating.

Snow Potential…

The bright side of the cold temps will be that it’ll bring snow chances with it.

Models are generally in agreement with that we will at least see some snow. Specific amounts and timing are unknown.

Above shows 6 different models agreeing that snow will be around midday Monday. This could change, models this far out are difficult to trust. However, six different models agreeing says something.

For now, NWS Nashville thinks our probability of getting at least 1″ of snow is around 60 – 70%. Our probability for 3″+ of snow drops to 20 – 30%.

The gif above shows 4 different model ensembles, giving their probability of at least one inch of snow. All in general agreement with NWS Nashville, in the ballpark of 60 – 75%.

Any snow that does fall will have no problem sticking, and no problem sticking around either with temperatures expected to stay below freezing until Thursday afternoon. If it were to snow, it would not have much of an issue sticking to roads, so travel conditions may deteriorate starting sometime Sunday night or Monday morning.

Confidence will increase as we get closer to the event. Forecast is subject to change, stay tuned.


Hazardous cold temps are possible again next weekend. One event at a time.

United States 8-14 Day Probabilistic Temperature Hazards Outlook

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High-End Wind Advisory & Strong Storms Possible Friday. Frigid Air Likely, Maybe Snow Early Next Week.

Enjoy the rest of this nice day today, our weather will change rather quickly tomorrow.

Yet another Wind Advisory has been issued for us from 6 am Friday thru midnight Friday.

Sustained winds from the SW at 25 – 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph are expected. The graph above from NWS Nashville shows our odds of wind gusts 50+ mph at 60-70%.

HRRR Model Forecast Wind Gusts: 4am Friday – 8pm Friday

The HRRR model (above) shows non-thunderstorm wind gusts really picking up after sunrise, lasting throughout the majority of the day.

Wind gusts this strong for a prolonged amount of time can knock down trees, power lines, and even cause structural damage. If possible, try not to park near any trees tomorrow. Keep devices charged in case of power loss. Driving may also be difficult tomorrow (esp. high-profile vehicles), particularly on east-west roads, such as I-40. Secure any outdoor furniture, trampolines, etc.

Along with the threat for strong non-thunderstorm wind gusts, we also have a low, but non-zero chance for severe weather tomorrow.

Areas in yellow (basically areas south of I-40) have been outlooked with a:

  • 15% chance of damaging straight-line winds within 25 miles
  • 2% chance of a tornado within 25 miles

The rest of the area outlooked in green (mainly areas north of I-40) are outlooked with a:

  • 5% chance of damaging straight-line winds within 25 miles

Try not to pay too much attention to where the lines are drawn, everyone has a low, but not-zero chance of severe weather. *Everyone* has the chance of non-thunderstorm wind gusts up to 55mph, which can be just as bad as straight-line winds in a thunderstorm.

The HRRR (above) shows widespread rain/storms starting out around sunrise Friday, lasting thru about noon. ETA subject to change.

Winds will likely be howling a majority of the day, however embedded in some of the stronger downpours, 58+mph wind gusts are possible. Our main threat tomorrow is damaging straight-line winds. While a tornado cannot be totally ruled out, the instability/CAPE/storm food needed for tornadoes will be hard to come by.

Details could change as new info comes in, stay tuned for any forecast tweaks.

Even after the rain/storms exit, our Wind Advisory will still be in place, and gusts up to 55 mph will still be possible thru the rest of Friday.


Saturday will be dry, but a lot cooler. High temps will struggle to reach 40°.

Sub-Freezing Temps Expected Sunday – Wednesday

It is looking more and more likely that temperatures will go below freezing Saturday night and not get above freezing until Wednesday/Thursday.

  • Low temps in the teens and single digits are possible Monday – Wednesday
  • Wind chill values below zero are also possible Monday night and Tuesday night
  • High temperatures only reaching the low to mid 20s on Monday and Tuesday

Wouldn’t be the worst idea to go ahead and start thinking about a plan to cover exposed pipes, dripping faucets, making room for pets indoors, and checking in on friends/neighbors who may not have adequate heat, especially if they lose power tomorrow.

And yes, there is still a possibility for snow at some point early next week. Models are still all over the place, and they are hard to trust this far out.

The cold air will certainly be in place, however our source for any moisture is sus, could miss us or just be too dry. Would really like to wait until Saturday to start talking about any snow specifics. Gotta get through Friday’s event first. One event at a time, y’all.

Also, new drought monitor came out today. No big changes from last week…

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More Wind & Storms(?) Friday. Dangerous Cold Arrives Early Next Week. First Legit Snow Chance of the Szn?

A busy forecast coming up for us.

The rest of today and Thursday will be calm. Thursday + Friday we’ll even be 5-10 degrees above average. Enjoy this, it will not last long.

Friday things change.

A strong low-pressure system will pass to our NW and will provide a whole bunch of wind + rain, maybe some storms.

  • non-thunderstorm wind gusts up to 35 – 45 mph are likely, with isolated higher gusts possible throughout the day Friday

In addition to the non-thunderstorm winds, the Storm Prediction Center has also outlooked both our counties with a 5% chance of severe weather within 25 miles for Friday.

As of right now, signs point to this being a possible straight-line wind event. Models are in good agreement that our atmosphere will not be supportive of tornadoes.

HRRR model shows rain arriving early Friday morning and lasting through midday. Models think we will have very little, if any CAPE (aka storm fuel) in place during this time, causing our severe chances to be very low, but not zero.

Regardless of if we see severe weather or not, our non-thunderstorm wind gusts will be ~ 40 – 50 mph, close enough.

Forecast subject to change, stay tuned.

Some flurries are possible Friday night, but no accumulation is expected with surface temperatures above freezing.

Saturday looks dry, but a lot cooler with highs struggling to reach 40°.

Prolonged Sub-Freezing Temps Expected

Before we get into the snow talk, I’d like to talk about what could be argued to be the headline of the upcoming forecast – the extreme cold coming early next week.

“…the coldest air we’ve had this winter — by far. In fact, it’ll be the coldest air we’ve had since December 2022. Remember that? Morning lows near zero? Yep. It’s coming again. Teens by Monday morning and by Tuesday morning models are consistently putting all of Middle TN at 5 degrees or colder. Pipe-bursting cold, y’all.”

– NWS Nashville Afternoon AFD

Sunday night we will go below freezing and will likely not get above freezing until maybe Wednesday afternoon – and we may stay below freezing Wednesday too. Wind chill values near or below 0° are possible Monday morning/night, Tuesday morning/night, and Wednesday morning.

Now is the time to start thinking about prepping exposed pipes, making room for pets inside, and checking in on neighbors who may not have adequate heating.

Ok Now Snow Talk

Well, snow lovers, I have good news.

“We’re still 5 days out and I can say, confidence is very high everyone will see snow, however the timing and location of the higher amounts is still bouncing around pretty significantly.”

– NWS Nashville Afternoon AFD

Models have been fairly consistent on showing at least some snow, likely either Monday or Tuesday. Specific amounts/timing are still unknown with this being ~5 days out.

Generally speaking, it seems right now like locations N of I-40 will receive more than locations S of I-40.

Above is 4 different models guesstimates at what the radar will look like Monday morning. For now, models are generally in agreement that there will be snow in the vicinity at this time. With temps well below freezing, any snow that does fall would have no problem accumulating.

This is still a longgg ways away, and this could all change. Really would like to get past the event Friday before we talk about any specifics on the snow. Models will likely bounce back and forth all week. Stay tuned for updates.

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Windy & Rain/Snow Mix Tonight, Deja Vu Friday, And Talking About COLD + Sn*w Potential

Lots to talk about before we dive into the wintry weather potential.


We still have a Wind Advisory to deal with until 6am Wednesday morning.

Wind gusts up to 40 – 45 mph are possible overnight. Could wake you up, but no need for concern.

Along with the wind, you may see a rain/snow mix this evening and tonight.

HRRR model shows precip will likely begin as rain, but as temps drop into the mid 30s, snowflakes will likely mix in. However, with surface temps above freezing, any snow will melt on contact with the surface. Maybeeeee briefly sticking to elevated surfaces if it falls fast enough, but no impacts expected.


Wednesday and probably all of Thursday we will get to take a deep breath and enjoy the dry weather. High temps get into the mid 50s on Thursday.

Friday a low pressure system will bring more wind + rain, a very similar system to the one we just had/are experiencing.

GIF by Groundhog Day

Good news is, no severe weather is expected.

The Euro thinks rain, heavy at times, arrives Friday morning and is out of here by Friday evening. Wind gusts will likely be in the 30-45 mph range, a Wind Advisory may be needed…again.

And there is the possibility for some wrap around flurries Friday night, but no accumulation is expected.

Forecast subject to change. Stay tuned.

Looking At Very Cold Temps + Sn*w Potential

Snow is a very touchy subject here in Middle TN. You either hate it or wait all year for it. Whenever models start hinting at it, a whole bunch of talk happens. Fantasy-land snowfall maps are thrown out and people go bonkers. This possible event would be maybe Monday, maybe Tuesday, maybe neither. This is ~150 hours out, and truth is, no one knows quite yet. Overall confidence is very low in snowfall amounts, if any, this far out.

However, there is confidence in very cold temperatures early next week.

ETA for very, very cold air looks like Monday right now. Single digit lows are possible and temps may not get above freezing for a couple of days.

The Blend of Models suggests this Arctic air won’t be in a huge rush to get out of here, and may stick around a majority of next week.

Models are suggesting the possibility of moisture Monday/Tuesday. There is a lot of uncertainty about how much, when, where, etc.

*If* the moisture and cold air line up, then accumulating snow would be possible.

There are so many “ifs” that it is not worth talking about potential snowfall amounts just yet. If you are scrolling and see a snowfall map, close your eyes and keep scrolling. Don’t fall for it.

For now, the best thing to do is prepare for the very cold temperatures.

We’ll be watching trends with the models throughout the week. Let’s get through this week first.


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Wind Advisory & Heavy Rain Tonight - Tuesday. More Rain Friday. Mumbles of Winter Wx Next Week.

The graphic above from NWS Nashville sums up our Wind Advisory that goes thru 6pm tonight thru midnight Tuesday night. Not a bad idea to charge your phones in case a tree branch decides to land on a powerline, secure all outdoor furniture.

Rain!

We need rain, and we’ll get around 1″ – 2″ of it starting tonight lasting thru Tuesday AM.

HRRR model shows rain starting tonight, heavy at times, lasting overnight and ending around mid-morning Tuesday. No severe weather for us, you might hear a rumble of thunder or two.

During the break mid-day Tuesday, colder air will filter in, aided by the strong wind.

Wrap around moisture from the low will bring us some rain/snow showers Tuesday afternoon and evening. Any snow would melt on contact with the ground, temps are forecasted to stay above freezing.


Wednesday and most of Thursday we get a break from any precip, before our next system moves in.

The Euro has a guesstimate of rain arriving early Friday morning, lasting thru the afternoon, and a meh chance at some wraparound flurries Friday night. No snow accumulation expected, around an inch or so of rain possible. No severe weather worries.

Let’s Talk Sn*w Potential…

Rumors are starting to fly around.

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability

Models continue to indicate Arctic air making its way to our area sometime early next week.

Models are also suggesting a trough coming thru around the same time, next Monday or so. This would bring us another chance for rain and possibly snow.

The Climate Prediction Center has us outlined in a Slight (20%) chance for heavy snow early next week. There is a lot of uncertainty in this, hence the rather large area included in the 20% area.

With this being 7+ days out, the forecast will likely change back and forth several times. Truth is, this far out, no one knows for sure. Shield your eyes from any snowfall accumulation maps. We’ll be watching…


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Heavy Rain & Wind Advisory Monday PM + Tuesday, Another System Thursday/Friday, Arctic Air Incoming?

There’s a lot to break down. Let’s do it.

Wind Advisory

When? 6pm Monday – 6pm Tuesday

What? Sustained winds from 15-25 mph, with gusts up to 35 – 45 mph will be possible

Winds could blow around unsecured objects; tree limbs could also get blown down and cause a few power outages.

Much Needed Heavy Rain

HRRR model shows:

  • rain starting late Monday evening
  • rain tapering off Tuesday morning
  • no severe weather expected, maybe a rumble of thunder tho
  • 1″ – 2″ of rain possible

Tuesday evening, we could get some more showers, possibly with some snow mixed in. No accumulation is expected for us, surface temperatures should stay above freezing.

Only A Brief Break Before Another System

Wednesday will be our brief dry day before more active weather arrives Thursday. Details are very fuzzy, for now it looks fairly similar to the Monday/Tuesday event, with a good amount of rain and a shot at some wraparound sn*w (accumulation not likely). Best ETA right now is Thursday night, lasting into Friday PM. This will likely need updating throughout the week.

Arctic Air Incoming?

Medium range models continue to hint at a shot for our coldest temperatures so far this year next weekend.

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability

The 6 – 10 day temperature outlook shows us likely experiencing below average temperatures, this trend continues in the 8 – 14 day outlook as well.

This however has quite a bit of uncertainty with it.

“It remains very unclear if/when this Arctic airmass could reach our neck of the woods if at all, which will have big implications on the potential for any winter weather around MLK day.

– NWS Nashville PM AFD

For now, we’ll just watch for the trends, and wait.

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Quick Showers Tonight, Heavy Rain & Gusty Winds Monday PM - Tuesday

Some light showers moving thru this evening, these should not last long, and should be outta here in the next couple of hours.

We’ll be dry for Sunday, but high temps will only make it up into the mid 40s, bundle up if venturing out to the Titans game.

Our weather will ramp up again as we head into Monday night.

The Euro (above) helps illustrate the current (subject to change) thinking of:

  • rain, heavy at times Monday PM thru Tuesday AM
  • maybe some thunder, but no severe weather is expected
  • a break from precip sometime midday Tuesday
  • wrap around moisture may provide more showers with snowflakes mixed in
  • surface temperatures are expected to be above freezing = no accumulation expected

Gusty winds will also be around Mon. – Tues., particularly during the day Tuesday. Gusts up to 35 – 45 mph are possible.

Still several days out, so details are fuzzy. Check back in for updates.

Cold(er) Air?

We haven’t really had any below-average temps thus far this winter. Long range models are suggesting this may change in the 6-10 day range.

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability

This is still wayyyy out there, so incredibly early to tell if we are looking at sn*w chances. We’ll be watching…


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Cold Rain Tonight, Rain & Gusty Winds Monday/Tuesday

Rain will be a common theme in our forecast for the next 7 days.

HRRR above gives a good look at what the radar might look like tonight into early Saturday morning:

  • a cold rain (just rain)
  • arriving ~ 9 – 10 pm
  • departing ~ 6 – 7 am Saturday
  • 0.5″ – 1″ of rain expected

Rest of the day Saturday should mostly be dry. A few isolated, quick rain showers are possible Saturday evening.

Sunday, last home Titans game of the season looks cool + dry.

Rain chances return Monday PM, along with some strong wind gusts.

The EURO illustrates the current thinking of:

  • rain arriving sometime Monday PM
  • on/off, heavy at times thru Tuesday AM
  • some wrap-around moisture may provide some more rain Tuesday night, maybe some flakes mixed in, but these would melt on contact with the ground
  • wind gusts up to 35 – 50(!) mph possible, if you haven’t already, might want to make sure to store away X-mas decor before then
  • no severe weather expected for us
  • 1″ – 2.5″ of rain possible

Details still iffy this far out, changes to the forecast are possible.

Long-range model data suggests that we’ll be in an active pattern for a few weeks. We shall see.

Suspicious Season 9 GIF by The Office

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