“Heat Wave” and Rain - But Maybe Too Much

BNA got all the way up to 47° today, which feels like quite the accomplishment.

Snow melts at different rates at different places, most of it probably melted today, but some stubborn snow/ice could hold on until tomorrow.

Some places could get below freezing tonight, but that looks like the last time we’ll get below freezing for at least the next 6 days.

  • High temps get up into the 50s tomorrow, and even the low 60s Wednesday + Thursday, time for the pool?

Rain, Maybe Too Much Rain

We need rain, but not all at once. Everything in moderation as my mother says.

While it won’t all come at once, it looks like the combination of snowmelt + 2 – 4″ of rain throughout the week, may cause some flooding problems.

“This could cause some hydro issues especially in the flood prone areas or areas with clogged drainage. A flood watch may become necessary particularly in the southern and eastern counties for Wednesday and Thursday.”

– NWS Nashville PM AFD

Timing:

Timestamp is in the upper left corner, HRRR model shows rain moving in Tuesday morning – it won’t rain the entire day. Another batch of heavier rain should come in Wednesday morning.

The Weather Prediction Center has outlooked both our counties with at least a 15% chance of flash flooding within 25 miles on Wednesday. This will need to be watched, especially in more flood-prone areas.

Rain chances stick around thru at least Thursday.

Currently, not any worries about severe weather. We’ll keep an eye on it though.

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Snowmelt Timing & Wet Week Ahead.

Ice remains. It was 5° at BNA overnight. Many local areas colder than that.

Temps above freezing – barely, briefly – this afternoon. Sunlight and light winds will erode but not eliminate ice sheets. Back down to 20° overnight and Monday morning.

Ice should linger through the Monday AM commute.


Freezing temps should end between 9-10 AM Monday, rising to 46° Monday afternoon. Commence the snowmelt! Shady areas may hold ice longer, perhaps through the PM commute. Remember fam, ice will melt at varying rates.

Lows Tuesday morning are tricky. BNA’s low is 37°. Other local areas may be colder than that, but I don’t think it’ll do much to refreeze washed away ice and snow.

Rain approaching Tuesday morning should wash away any surviving, hardpacked ice.

47° late morning Tuesday, afternoon high 54°, with rainfall melting and shoving ice away. Beginning Tuesday, we will not get below freezing for at least the next week.

Expect temps and rain to clear ice Tuesday.


Rain heaviest Tuesday through Thursday. Forecast rain totals increased from 2″ to 3″ to 3″ to 5″.

This may rise rivers and streams.

[S]nowmelt plus cold and soggy grounds with several inches of rain falling on top of that is a recipe for flooding and rises on our area rivers and lakes. A Flood Watch may be necessary for parts or all of the [area] in a couple days if these model trends continue.

NWS-Nashville, AM Forecast Disco, 1/21/24

A Flood Watch is possible mid/late this week.


Severe weather potential Thursday remains a topic, but news is good.

[G]uidance has been suggesting that 60+ dewpoints may make it northward into parts of our [area] in the Wednesday or Thursday timeframe, and given the ample shear depicted a low end severe threat could result – although this is highly uncertain at this range.

NWS-Nashville, AM Forecast Disco, 1/21/24

SPC says “predictability too low” to outlook us for severe potential.

Models disagree as usual. Yesterday, the Euro model advertised severe-storm-capable instability with 60° dewpoints. Today it has dewpoints in the upper 50°s with only a narrow band of much weaker instability. The GFS model has none of this.

Thunderstorms maybe, but the data shows no basis for severe storm alarm.

Concern about a severe storm event Thursday is decreasing.


Day 6-10, Day 8-14, and Weeks 3-4 outlooks suggest above-average temps. This does not rule out another winter event, but it suggests that if we get one, arctic air is unlikely to race in behind it and lock in ice and snow for a week.

A repeat of this weeklong snow is unlikely in the foreseeable future.

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About Melting, Rain, & Severe Weather Potential

Most main and secondary roads are OK, but could contain “invisible” black ice in “hard freeze” (T<26°) temps today and Sunday morning. Neighborhood roads, sidewalks and decks remain icy, esp on hills and in shady areas.

Icy roads should mostly remain this weekend through Monday morning.

  • High today 20°, tomorrow 32°.
  • Winds, traffic, and sunlight will help erode – but won’t eliminate – icy snowpack. We need temps well above freezing to get rid of the ice.
  • Some areas may slide above freezing briefly Sunday afternoon. The 1100+ sq mi of Davidson and Williamson Counties experience wide temp variance. Usually the variance is a distinction without difference, except in these situations where a few degrees +/- 32° is everything. The relative safety of your route will vary from mine.
  • A Wind Chill Advisory is in effect today through tomorrow morning. Wind Chills will hit the negative numbers esp overnight and Sunday morning.
  • Widespread melting ETA Monday afternoon. The eroding icepack should remain on neighborhood roads and concrete sidewalks for the Monday AM commute. Temps rise above freezing late Monday morning on our way to a high of 46° Monday afternoon. Ice will change to water, roads will be wet as water runs off or evaporates.
  • Temps should bottom out Tuesday morning around 35° at BNA. Some areas around town may briefly dip to or below freezing. I expect few/no problems Tuesday morning but I’d like to wait and see what happens Monday before making a confident declaration.
  • Tuesday will rinse away any remaining snow and ice as rain moves in and temps rise to 51°.

Warm and Raining Next Week

Tuesday – Thursday looks wet. Euro model below estimates ongoing total rainfall from Tuesday morning to Friday morning:

NWS-Nashville forecasts 2″ to 3″ of rain during this time. It won’t rain the entire time. We will need the higher resolution models to get in range for rough ETAs, etc.

Strong/Severe Storms With That Rain?

Probably not.

My only mild concern is Thursday afternoon.

  • The 0z Euro model run drops in 500+ SBCAPE with 64° dewpoints, 200 SRH 0-1km, and low LCLs, but modest lapse rates. Those are many (not all!) ingredients for severe weather. Not ready to speculate on severe type (wind, hail, tornado).
  • The GFS model has none of the bad stuff – it keeps severe ingredients south of TN/AL border.
  • SPC has not outlooked us for severe weather, thinking instability will be confined to the Gulf states.

More on this tomorrow.

Week long snowpack to severe potential is not cool.

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Wind Chill Advisory Through Sunday Morning

The brutal cold is the big story. More on that in just a bit. First, quick note about the snow.

Light snow showers across the area have been stubborn to dissipate today with some sites still reporting light snow or flurries ongoing this afternoon. So a dusting or a quick half inch of snow isn`t out of the question still through this afternoon, but all of this should wind down within the next few hours.

NWS Nashville

If you get a quick burst of snow, roads can deteriorate quickly on a local level, even if just for a few minutes. Take it easy out there.

Brutal Cold…Again

Temps will plumet through what’s left of the 20’s, through the teens and end up down in the single digits by sunrise Saturday. 6° is the official forecast. Your mileage may vary.

Combined with the winds, wind chill values will be below zero.

Rinse and repeat for Saturday and Saturday night. By sunrise Sunday morning, temps will bottom out around 3°.

Seems like we were just here, but here are some reminders:

Also, hypothermia is a real thing. Take precautions against it if you must go outside.

What’s Next?

At the risk of crying happy tears while I write this, I am thrilled to share… there’s a heat wave coming.

Ehh, gonna take a bit for stuff to thaw out.

Temps rebound into the mid-40s on Monday, and we’re into the LOW 60’s THURSDAY. I can’t even.

Rain will be returning, though. GFS thinks we’ll have several rounds of rain Tuesday-Friday. Don’t read into timings from this model. Just wanted to show green instead of a buncha blue.

The good news (other than the temps) is that we could pick up a couple of inches of rainfall over the next 7 days, which would help the continuing drought situation.

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Freezing Rain Possible Throughout The Evening, Wind Chill Advisory Overnight Friday

Freezing rain/drizzle is moving in our area and already causing travel issues.

Temperatures currently range from 30 – 33°, throughout our counties, impacts will differ from place to place.

Snow already on the ground will help ice accumulate either, freezing on top of the snow.

Road conditions will likely deteriorate throughout the day. Unlike snow, you may not see the ice on the roads/walkways. Even if going out to get the mail or walking the dog, be careful on sidewalks, ice shows no mercy.

As precipitation increases throughout the afternoon and evening, it will be best to stay off the roads. If you must travel, take it slowwww. You may not be able to see the slick spots. You can check the TDOT Smartway cams here.

Your reports will be vital today. Tweet what type of precipitation you are seeing, any ice accumulation with #tspotter.

Timing:

The latest HRRR model shows on/off mixed precipitation, likely mostly freezing rain/drizzle continuing on/off thru ~ 8 or 9 pm.

Thankfully ice totals will stay under 0.1″, so we are not worried about trees/power lines being weighed down, but travel is likely to be negatively impacted. Impacts will likely last thru the day Friday and linger into the weekend.

Brutal Cold Returns:

Sub-freezing temperatures will return this evening and we will likely stay below freezing until Monday (maybe Sunday afternoon if we are lucky).

  • Temperatures will fall into the single digits Friday and Saturday night, with wind chills as low as -10° possible.
  • A Wind Chill Advisory has been issued from 10pm Friday thru noon Saturday for these dangerous wind chills
  • another Wind Chill Advisory may be needed overnight Saturday

Remember the 4 P’s – people, pets, pipes and plants. Check in on friends/family who may not have sufficient heat and make room for pets inside. Prepare any exterior pipes. Be careful with using any space heaters, don’t plug them into a power strip and make sure they stay far away from any objects.

Warm Up Next Week:

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability

Some much needed warmer temperatures are expected next week.

Rain, just rain, chances will return Tuesday/Wednesday.

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Winter Weather Advisory Noon Thurs. thru 9am Fri., Freezing Rain Possible.

We have a Winter Weather Advisory for both of our counties from noon Thursday – 9am Friday.

  • Ice accumulations up to 0.1″ possible…
  • “Travel conditions remains treacherous in some locations owing to lingering snow cover” – NWS Nashville
  • “…additional ice and snow accumulations will exacerbate these conditions.” – NWS Nashville

Across our counties, probabilities for >0.01″ of ice accumulation range from 30 – 70%.

Ice is a lot different from snow. All it takes is a glazing of ice to cause issues on the roads.

freezing-rain-2020 | NC Dept of Public Safety | Flickr

Thankfully we aren’t looking at ice accumulations significant enough to weigh down trees and power lines, but this could cause major travel problems again, especially with some roads already being treacherous.

Timing:

HRRR model (above) shows precip moving into our area around noon tomorrow, continuing on/off thru about 8 or 9 pm.

Unlike like our last event, surface temperatures will be near the freezing mark, and temperatures aloft will likely be above freezing. Most of our precipitation will likely come in the form of freezing rain, but some rain/snow could mix in.

Freezing Rain : r/Infographics

It may look like it is just raining tomorrow, but these raindrops may freeze on contact with the surface, causing problems.

Tomorrow’s forecast will be a little more complicated than usual, as a difference in just a few degrees could make a lot of difference. We will likely be sending up a weather balloon tomorrow to see how the temperature/moisture profiles are up in the atmosphere to get a better guess at what kind of precipitation we may get. We’ll keep you posted.

Road conditions may deteriorate quickly tomorrow, especially bridges and overpasses. Keep that in mind tomorrow if you are planning on heading out. You can check the TDOT Smartway map here.

We will be dry this weekend, but sub-freezing temperatures are expected to hang around all weekend. Single digit lows are likely again overnight Friday and Saturday, with sub-zero wind chills possible.

Take action against frostbite and hypothermia if going outside., bundle up with multiple layers.

Frostbite & Hypothermia: Know Your Actions.
If someone might have frostbite or hypothermia, seek medical attention immediately!
Get to a warm area. Remove wet clothing. Warm up with dry layers of blankets or clothing. Place skin affected by frostbite in warm water (not hot).
Frostbite caution: do not use fireplaces or artificial heat sources for warming. Do not rub or put pressure on areas with frostbite.

Forecast is subject to change, stay connected for any updates.

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Wind Chill Advisory Thru Wednesday AM, A Little More Snow Possible Thurs. Night, More Dangerous Temps This Weekend

Wind Chill Advisory continues thru 10 AM Wednesday.

  • “Wind chills as low as 15° below zero…plan on slippery road conditions. The cold wind chills could result in hypothermia if precautions are not taken.” – NWS Nashville

High temps only expected to make it to 18° today. Wind chills will be stuck in the single digits during the day.

Air temps tonight will be very close to 0°, your backyard may make it below zero.

If sledding or going out today, make sure to bundle up. Frostbite and hypothermia can set in very quickly.

Frostbite & Hypothermia: Know Your Actions.
If someone might have frostbite or hypothermia, seek medical attention immediately!
Get to a warm area. Remove wet clothing. Warm up with dry layers of blankets or clothing. Place skin affected by frostbite in warm water (not hot).
Frostbite caution: do not use fireplaces or artificial heat sources for warming. Do not rub or put pressure on areas with frostbite.

Road conditions are still sketch, especially backroads that haven’t been treated. Continue to take it slow if going out. Clear off the roof of your car before heading out. Do not let ice missiles fly into other cars. You can check the TDOT Smartway cams here.

If you were snow deprived, you were certainly left happy.

A map showing the distribution of snowfall amounts across Middle Tennessee. 8 inches in Nashville to 5 inches in Lafayette.

Most of us ended with 6-8″, some as high as 9″. Crazy.

With temperatures expected to stay below freezing until Thursday, not much melting will occur.

Another system may bring us some more wintry precip Thursday PM, but this set up is significantly different than what we just had. Temperatures will be hovering around the freezing mark, so it looks like we may get a mix of rain and snow.

For now, models think rain will start sometime Thursday afternoon, then snow gradually will mix in.

Snow totals look minimal, less than an inch currently expected for places north of I-40, very little, if any expected south of I-40.

Forecast subject to change, check for back updates.

Brutally cold temperatures return Friday and Saturday.

Sub-freezing temps all day Friday and Saturday, with low temps back in the single digits. Wind chills will likely be below zero at night.

If you dislike the cold, good news, change is coming.

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability

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Hypothermia Danger: Wind Chill Advisory.

Wind Chill Advisory. Tonight 10 PM thru Weds 11 AM.

  • Wind Chills “as low as minus fifteen” (-15°) expected.” -NWSNashville.
  • Winds could “result in hypothermia if precautions are not taken.” -NWSNashville.
  • Any traveling vehicles need full weather clothes, flashlight, food, water should you slide off icy roads. If you crash you’ll need supplies.
  • Tues morning temperature low: 7°. Weds morning low 2°. TWO. Wind chills will be much colder of course.

Snow Totals Vary 5.5″ to 9.5″. Snow fell unevenly. Elevation and location skew results. I’ve seen 5.5″ to 9.5″ in our replies. An average winter in the last 30 years delivered 4.7″. Snowfall is ending now and should be gone after dark. Send measured snow taken from hard surface (not grass) by tagging it with #tSpotter on Twitter.

Check Road Conditions. Use TDOT Smartway to get a look at the interstate system. Secondary roads are a mess. Do not attempt necessary. We all know YOU know how to drive perfectly in this, but the problem is OTHER DRIVERS who cause wrecks. This further stresses police and fire first responder capacity. Do not be victimized by other driver negligence/ignorance.

Melt?

  • “With the long duration of below freezing temperatures, snow will be very slow to melt. Sunshine on Wednesday will help melt snow.” -NWSNashville.
  • Above freezing temps expected late Thursday morning — but that will only be for a few hours – then another system swings in.
  • Reinforcing sub-freezing air will lock in a frozen Fri-Sat.
  • This snow will be around a while. Especially shady areas.

Snow Event Thursday Night? Maybe, under 1″ current forecast.

  • Looks like a rain/snow mix transitioning to snow after dark Thu.
  • Seven different models snapshotting 6 PM on Thursday are below. Notice the lack of rain vs snow consensus.

Precip type will not be as easy with this one as our current system. Profiles around 850 mb will start to warm to near or just above freezing, we will also see surface temperatures warm above freezing during the afternoon Thursday. This will bring some rain mixing with snow. This mix will continue into the evening as surface temperatures fall below freezing again. Right now is doesn’t look like we will see any ice accumulation but we could see some light snow accumulation. Totals look to remain very light, under an inch.

NWS-Nashville, Afternoon Discussion, 1/15/24

Reduce Sled Injury Risks. Avoid sledding near fences, too close to other sledders, trees. Head injuries are devastating. Have heard some scary/sad stories already with this event. Helmets are good ideas. Be safe out there.

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Hazardous Road Conditions + Dangerously Cold Temperatures. Snow Continues Thru The Evening.

We woke up this morning to several inches of snow on the ground and air temperatures around 10°, with wind chill values around 0°. That doesn’t sound much like Middle TN. Quite the snow event we have here.

Snow will continue to fall thru this evening.

Graphic showing additional snowfall totals expected during the day today through tonight across Middle Tennessee

Above is additional snow possible throughout the day, on top of what has already fallen. Generally, north of I-40 around an additional 1 – 2″, with an additional 2 – 3″ south of I-40.

HRRR model (above) shows snow ending for the most part around 5 or 6 pm.

Road conditions are hazardous, and they will continue to worsen with additional snow.

Your safest bet is staying off the roads.

If you must travel, take it slow and leave plenty of room between you and the car in front of you. You know your vehicle best, don’t push it past its’ limits. And most importantly, *clear the snow off the top of your car! * Snow left on top of vehicles can become ice missiles. Please, don’t put others at risk.

You can check out the Road Conditions/TDOT SmartWay Cams here: TDOT SmartWay: Home (tn.gov)

Ice and Snow, Take It Slow. Did you know? Each year in the United States, there are over 1,000 deaths and 100,000 injuries due to vehicle crashes during winter weather. Clean off your vehicle before driving. Flying snow from cars causes accidents. Keep it slow, and don’t use cruise control. Roads can be slick even if they just look wet. Leave extra distance between vehicles. Stay especially far from snow plows.

Along with the snow, dangerous cold temperatures will stick with us. Temperatures will not make it above freezing until Thursday, so expect little melting until then.

Freezing temperatures continue through late Thursday morning. Wind chill values areawide Monday and Tuesday nights will be near to below zero. Remember the 4 P's: people, pets, pipes, and plants.

Low temperatures will slide down into the low teens and single digits tonight and Tuesday night, with wind chill values going below 0°. Even during the day today and Tuesday, wind chill values will stay in the single digits.

If going outside to enjoy the snow, make sure to dress warm, with multiple layers.

Check in on neighbors/friends who may not have adequate heating, and don’t forget to make room for pets indoors.

Enjoy the snow, but stay safe and warm!

GIF by America's Funniest Home Videos

A wintry mix with some more snow is possible Thursday night into Friday AM. Details are still fuzzy, more on this later. Temperatures will likely not get above freezing Friday or Saturday.

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Sunday Night Update: It’s Snowing. Winter Storm Warning Until Tuesday AM, Hazardous Traveling Conditions, Dangerous Cold

Well…it’s snowing.

As expected, snow has quickly accumulated across the area and road conditions are quickly deteriorating. If you don’t have to get out, please don’t. If you must get out, please, take it slow, leave plenty of room, and *clean the snow off the top of your car*. Snow on top of vehicles can become aerodynamic ice missiles, and you do not want that flying thru a windshield.

The most recent expected snow totals from NWS Nashville are 3-4″ N of I-40, and 4-6″ S of I-40.

Recent model trends suggest we may end up with the higher end of the range.

Latest HRRR model above shows fairly consistent snow thru around sunset Monday. Earlier models predicted a break Monday morning, but recent model runs suggest not much of a break. This is something to watch…

If latest model trends are correct, snowfall totals closer to the 5-6″ part of the range, with locally higher amounts would be possible.

Over the past day or so, a heavier axis of snowfall was predicted, but it was expected to be to our south. Recent data trends suggest that the heavier axis of snow will end up on top of us, thus the higher snow potential. This still isn’t a guarantee, but it appears more likely now.

Road conditions will continue to worsen overnight. You can check local traffic cams/road conditions here: TDOT SmartWay: Home (tn.gov)

Along with the snow, we also have dangerously cold temperatures to deal with.

Wind chill values thru Wednesday morning are expected to stay around 0°. If going out, make sure to dress in multiple, warm layers.

Check in on friends/family who may not have adequate heating, and remember the four P’s – people, pets, pipes, plants.

With air temperatures not expected to get above freezing until Thursday, very little melting is expected until then. Travel will likely remain hazardous for a couple of days.

Due to temperatures being so cold, the snow will be “lighter” and “fluffier” – unlike the heavy, wet snow we are usually get. Thankfully because of this, we aren’t worried about snow being a problem for trees/power lines.

We may have another winter weather event to deal with Thursday night into Friday AM, but let’s just enjoy this one right now…

Keep checking in for more forecast updates…

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