Warm and Humid Through Thursday, Rain Chances Resume Thursday

This Afternoon Through Wednesday

High pressure to our east means south winds bringing return-to-summer temperatures.

Thursday and Friday

A frontal boundary sets up bringing daily chances for showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm beginning late Thursday. Severe weather is not expected at this time, but a few strong storms are possible in spots.

It will remain warm and humid with highs in the low 80s on Thursday and near 80 on Friday. Dewpoints are expected to be in the mid 60s which will make it feel a bit sticky out there. Humidity arrives with May.

As we tweeted this afternoon:

Below is the NAM model for Thursday morning through Friday evening. It shows scattered areas of showers but not the whole time. There is uncertainty with the location of these showers because we are still a couple days out and models don’t do well at this range in these situations, so be sure to keep checking back for updates.

Don’t trust any summertime airmass forecast more than 36 hours away. Inside those 36 hours, be wary.

A Look Ahead to the Weekend

Considerable uncertainty remains as to whether it will be mostly dry or wet, although cooler temperatures are expected due to increased cloud cover. Probably some off and on showers, more likely in the afternoon during peak heating, and less likely overnight/morning. However, a shortwave could ride across our boundary and cause rain/storms at any time. Your results will vary.

Editor’s Note: we’re entering the time of year where your crap app is crappiest. Instead of systems emerging from a clear source (low pressure dragging a cold front from west to east) that are subject to being timed, we’re transitioning to a humid season where shortwaves come and go unpredictably, and storms form just because it got hot somewhere or cold aloft somewhere else. Your crap app expresses all uncertainties with clip art and a percentage best read for the region as a whole, not your specific location. If you planned something outside in May, I’m sorry.

As always, be sure to check back for updates!


Cooler Today, Warmer Monday and Tuesday with Unsettled/Rainy-Stormy Weather By The End of the Week

Today and Tonight

Partly sunny skies this morning will gradually clear out making for a beautiful and sunny, but cooler afternoon with highs right around 70. Clear and comfortable conditions tonight with a low near 54.

Monday and Tuesday

Warm and dry with highs in the mid 80s and lows in the 60s. Great time to spend outside!

Wednesday through the End of the Week

Our next chances for rain begin late Wednesday and continue into Friday as an unsettled pattern develops. ETAs are still uncertain as we remain a few days out, but it does look like the main chance for rain will be Thursday into Friday. The NWS says:

Rain and the chance for a few thunderstorms makes a comeback later Wednesday, continuing through early Saturday morning. Daytime surface heating and mid-level shortwave energy will help spark convection [thunderstorms] across the Mid State Wed-Thu, followed by more organized forcing ahead of a cold front Friday. Severe weather is not anticipated during this time-frame, and rainfall totals will likely remain under one-half to three-quarters of an inch.

Editor’s Note: The Storm Prediction Center thinks “predictability [is] too low” to determine severe weather risk thresholds Thursday and Friday, but remember severe weather to them means damaging winds, hail, and/or tornadoes. This doesn’t include thunderstorms/lightning, which are possible, if not likely, Thursday and Friday afternoons.

Here is the latest GFS model run:

Wednesday – Friday temps from the National Weather Service:

Next weekend looks pretty nice, but too soon to really tell.

Be sure to check back for updates!


Chance for Showers Wednesday, Rain for NFL Draft Night, Dry and Pleasant for Marathon Saturday

Tonight

After a pleasant and warm afternoon, tonight will remain on the mild side with a low near 58.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night

Clouds will be increasing as a frontal boundary slowly drops in from the north. This may bring an isolated afternoon shower to the region, although it remains uncertain as the models have been showing two different pictures. The latest NAM3 says we don’t get anything:

The GFS model shows a different picture with a few light rain showers during the afternoon:

Temperatures remain on the mild side with a high near 80, and a low near 60.

Thursday/NFL Draft Night

As a storm system passes to our south, chances for rain will be increasing throughout the day with widespread rain possible by NFL draft night. The NAM3 is just coming in range and does show some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms forming by late afternoon, however there remains a bit of uncertainty as to the timing so be sure to check back for the latest updates.

The National Weather Service is going with scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms:

Severe weather is not expected. Shear too meager; however, watch out for lightning downtown. Word is they’ll ask you to evacuate if lightning is within 8 miles. We’ll be live tweeting this event.

Friday into Marathon Saturday

Dry and pleasant Friday into the weekend!

Marathon:  Marathon start temp around 54° will warm up to 75° by the afternoon with a light breeze and dewpoints around 50°, making for great running conditions! 

Be sure to check back for updates!


Heavy Rain Tonight; Cooler and Rainy Friday with A Gradual Weekend Warm-Up. Beautiful Easter Sunday!

Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms will move into our region over the next several hours. The main threat is locally heavy rainfall, which the National Weather Service highlights in their afternoon discussion:

Some strong to maybe a couple of severe thunderstorms possible, but in analysis of model sounding profiles, this looks more and more like mainly a rain making event with some heavy downpours this evening causing local ponding of water on area roadways and possible minor flooding of flood prone areas.

As for the timing of this rain, the latest NAM3 model shows some showers breaking out right around your evening commute, with the heaviest rain occurring between 9 PM and 2 AM.

While the severe threat is very low, the Storm Prediction Center does keep us in a 5% risk of seeing damaging wind gusts of 58 mph or more within 25 miles of a point.

We are excluded from SPC tornado and hail threats.

Latest rainfall projections from the National Weather Service have between 1.5 and 2 inches of rain falling tonight through Saturday, although the bulk of that will fall tonight with the heavier storms.

Temperatures in the mid 70s this evening will crash hard as the cold front sweeps through overnight and will be in the lower 50s by sunrise.

Friday

Much colder! Highs will be steady around 54 degrees in the morning and will slowly fall throughout the afternoon. These temperatures will combine with a brisk NW wind to make for a chilly day.

No severe weather expected but light rain redevelops and lingers most of the day. NAM3 model shows a cold rain spinning overhead Friday into Saturday morning.

Saturday through Easter Sunday

Wind chills in the 30↑8s late Friday night into early Saturday morning.

Clouds and lingering showers will gradually clear out and temperatures will pop to near 60 degrees making for an overall pleasant Saturday late afternoon — assuming the clouds get out in time. Saturday night will be another cool one, but we will see a beautiful Easter Sunday with plenty of sun and a high near 76.

Check back for updates!


Stormy, Rainy Thursday Night: Strong/Severe Thunderstorms Possible

Pretty Great Thru Wednesday Night

Pleasant conditions will persist into Wednesday as an area of high pressure continues to bring sunny and dry weather. Temperatures will remain above normal with lows tonight in the mid 50°s and highs tomorrow right around 80°.

Stormy, Rainy Thursday Night: Strong/Severe Possible

What. We’re included in the Storm Prediction Center’s risk area for severe weather. This means there’s a 15% probability of severe weather within 25 miles of us.

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All hazards are possible, most likely damaging straight-line thunderstorm winds. Hail is also possible. See the risk assessment from NWS-Nashville below:

Tornadoes are least likely, but still possible. This system has everything it needs to make tornadoes except for low-level storm fuel called “CAPE,” which stands for Convective Available Potential Energy. CAPE should be in low supply (thankfully), but if we get just enough, watch out.

About rain/flooding, from NWS-Nashville:

Total forecasted rainfall amounts will range from around two inches Upper Cumberland to around three inches southern portions of TN River Valley.

NWS thinks for us 2″. NWS’s buddy organization, the Weather Prediction Center, puts our probability of flash flooding around 10% to 20%, so says this map:

Timing. Most likely late afternoon into evening hours.  Below is the NAM3 model showing the heaviest stuff coming in after rush hour Thursday afternoon.

Most likely time for storms is 7 PM to 10 PM. Timing may change so stay connected. Even if the timing is right and the heaviest storms arrive between 7 PM and 10 PM, rain possible before and after that time frame. Expect rainouts Thursday night, but be flexible. Storms may be late and you might be able to get activities in. More models will be “in range” of this event tomorrow so we hope for more details and forecast confidence then.

The heaviest rain should end just before Friday morning’s rush hour.

Friday into the Weekend

Friday will feature mostly cloudy and cooler conditions as a cold front moves through with high temperatures only in the mid 50s. Off and on rain is possible Friday.

A gradual warming trend looks to take place over the weekend with highs rebounding into the 70s by Sunday.  Rain chances will continue throughout Saturday, but it does not look like a washout. Sunday looks fine.

To review:

Be sure to check back for more updates!


Wet and Unsettled Weekend Ahead

This Afternoon and Tonight

A beautiful, sunny, warm, and breezy afternoon will give way to increasing clouds with showers and thunderstorms late tonight into tomorrow morning as a cold front swings through.  Out ahead of, and behind this front, we will continue to see windy conditions, which is why the National Weather Service has placed us under a Wind Advisory until 1 am Friday. NWS:

An approaching weather system will result in strong, southerly winds across western and central locations of the mid-state region. Sustained winds of 20-25 mph with gusts as high as 40 mph are likely. While it will remain breezy after 1 am, winds are expected to remain below criteria levels.

Most of the night should remain dry but a few scattered showers are possible before the main line arrives early tomorrow morning. This is shown by the latest NAM3 model which brings the line of showers and thunderstorms through right around 7 AM. Temperatures in the mid 80s this afternoon will fall into the upper 50s to near 60 overnight.

 

Friday and Friday Night

Early morning showers and thunderstorms will give way to a windy and partly sunny afternoon with above normal temperatures expected as highs reach the mid 70s. Friday night, expect mostly cloudy skies as our next system approaches from the southwest. At this point it looks like the rain will hold off until Saturday morning. Lows will be comfortable around 54 degrees.

Saturday and Sunday

A storm system from the southwest will bring periods of rain throughout the weekend. Rain will arrive from southeast to northwest between 7 AM and 2 PM Saturday before tapering to scattered showers in the evening as a warm front lifts through the region. The NAM3 model shows this:

By Saturday night, the low pressure system across Texas will move northeast and spread more rain through the area into Sunday afternoon, before a cold front swings through Sunday evening bringing an end to the rain and ushering in a cooler, drier air mass. The latest GFS model shows this second round of rain arriving after midnight Saturday and ending by late Sunday afternoon.

 

Temperatures during the weekend will remain above normal. Here is the NWS forecast:

Check back for updates!


Sunny and Beautiful through Mid Week; Thunderstorms Possible Late Thursday

This Afternoon into Tonight

It is an absolutely beautiful afternoon out there today! As you can see in the map below, most places in our region are in the mid and upper 70s with abundant sunshine. These conditions will continue into the evening with temperatures topping out right around 80 degrees. Skies will remain mainly clear overnight as an area of high pressure moves into the region bringing light winds and near normal temperatures with lows near 50 degrees.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night

As a weak ridge of high pressure moves across Tennessee, another sunny and warm day is on tap with highs around 80 degrees. High clouds moving in during the evening will thicken overnight keeping temperatures well above average, with lows in the lower 60s.

This is the National Weather service forecast map for high temperatures on Wednesday:

Here are the Wednesday night low’s forecast by the National Weather Service as well:

Thursday

Our attention turns to a storm system that will be forming across the Plains states which may bring us a chance for showers and thunderstorms later in the day. Earlier this week, the Storm Prediction Center had us in a 15% chance for severe weather within 25 miles of the Middle Tennessee region, that has now changed as details have become more clearer on the track of the storm. The latest outlook by the Storm Prediction center has moved that risk away from our region to our north and west, as shown below:

Thursday will feature a mix of clouds and sun with warm and breezy conditions as mild southwesterly flow sets up. Highs will reach the lower 80s with southwest winds 15-20 mph gusting as high as 30 mph. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible late in the afternoon, but there remains considerable uncertainty with the arrival of the cold front.

Below is the latest NAM3 model which only goes out to 7PM Thursday, but it shows the line of showers and storms well off to our west, so this is something we will need to monitor over the next couple days.

This line of storms could intensify beyond what models are showing. ETA would be very late Thursday night into Friday morning. That’s a good timing for us, during the wee hours of the morning when the atmosphere is most stable.

Friday – Weekend

Unsettled.

A few showers may develop Friday and Saturday afternoons, but that’s unlikely.

Sunday looks like a washout. A potent storm system will streak across the area producing heavy rain and even thunderstorms. Severe weather isn’t being forecast right now, but it is also not being ruled out.


Flood-Producing Rains Possible, Severe Weather Saturday

[Please read the entire blog, including the editor’s comments at the end, regarding the flooding threat. First, intern “applican” Jon lays out the next few days for us:]

 

Summary

After a brief drying period, rain has arrived and will continue through Saturday night. A flash flood watch is in effect for the entire Middle Tennessee region including Davidson and Williamson counties from tonight until Saturday evening as the potential exists for an additional 2- 4 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts where storms tend to “train” or sit over an area dumping rain. The concern for flooding is big. Another issue that we may have to deal with is a potential severe storms Saturday afternoon. More on this later. A cold front sweeping through Sunday will bring a much needed end to the rain with temperatures remaining right around normal or just a couple degrees above.

 

 

This Evening into Tonight

Rain showers pushing into our counties will continue to increase in coverage and intensity as we head into the evening commute. Light rain will continue through the overnight hours with rainfall amounts near 0.5 inches, with the highest amounts to the south and west of the Nashville metro area. Temperatures should drop to 43° in Nashville. Here’s the NAM 3km’s take on the rain tonight….through 6 am tomorrow.

Friday and Friday Night

Periods of rain will continue throughout the period with additional rainfall amounts of 1.5 inches in the forecast for Friday. High temperatures will range from 50 – 54 with the warmest readings in downtown Nashville. A warm front will start to lift through the area Friday night bringing milder temperatures into Saturday.

 

Saturday

We are tracking a possible severe weather setup during the day as a very warm and moist air-mass moves through the area out ahead of a deepening low pressure system set to track northeastward into the Great Lakes. The Storm Prediction Center has all of western Tennessee including Davidson and Williamson counties in an enhanced risk for severe storms Saturday with the primary threats being damaging winds in association with the possible development of a squall line. We will need to pay attention to this over the next couple of days. For folks heading out to the Dierk’s Bentley concert at Bridgestone Arena, make sure to have an umbrella handy and pay attention to all watches and warnings that may be issued in case of severe storms.  Temperatures will be quite warm with highs surging well above normal with a forecast high of 69°. Winds from the south will make it feel even warmer at 10-20 mph gusting as high as 30 mph.

 

This is the latest 3K NAM model’s take on Saturday’s squall line from 3pm through midnight Saturday night/Sunday morning.

 

Sunday

A cold front will sweep through the area Saturday night bringing drier and pleasant conditions. Highs will fall back to near normal in the mid 50’s. Winds will switch from the South and turn West at 10 – 15 mph gusting as high as 30 mph at times.

[Editor’s Note about the flooding situation. First of all, thanks to Jon for writing!

This afternoon, our NWS put out their forecast discussion, which they issue a few times a day. Here is some of that discussion.

This isn`t a forecast discussion I write lightly. After yesterday`s widespread flooding across all of Middle TN, even with the 18 hour break in rainfall, the addition of even another 1 to 1.5 inches is going to create some major issues. The problem is, we`re now forecasting 1 to 3 inches of rain just through tomorrow afternoon and a total of 3 to 5 inches from tonight through Saturday night. The highest amounts are currently thought to fall across southwest portions of Middle TN, basically west of I-24 and south of I-40. While there were already swift water rescues yesterday, this amount of rainfall is likely to cause more of the same and probably even cause some people to be thinking about a plan to evacuate. This needs to be your focus prior tonight. If you live near a stream or a creek or a river that you know floods easily, you need to have a plan in place to evacuate and get to higher ground in the event waters begin to rise as this has the makings of a life-threatening situation. The main time of concern begins early tomorrow morning, runs right through most of the day tomorrow and probably won`t let up much, if at all, tomorrow night. While there is a severe weather threat Saturday evening across the mid-state, the focus right now needs to be the extreme amount of rainfall we`re expecting. Please don`t take this lightly. Have a plan in place now so you can evacuate to higher ground quickly, if need be.

That’s pretty strong wording. Here’s their forecast graphic created at 4:26 pm this afternoon. It depicts expected rainfall amounts through Saturday night.

Will everyone receive the max accumulation listed on the map? Hopefully not, and we don’t believe so. In fact, model data says: 

I’ll summarize with these main points. If you live near a flood prone area, have a plan in case you need to leave. Have a way to get warnings. If you’ve turned WEA alerts off on your phone, turn them on. Flash flood warnings come through on WEAs based on your location. Have a way to get warnings while you sleep. If you must drive, if you encounter water over a road, please don’t drive through it. There’s no way to know if the roadbed still exists, and there’s no way to know how deep the water is.]

After a Mild and Pleasant Day, A Wet Weekend Is In Store For The Area

 

TODAY

It is a very pleasant and mild afternoon out there today without temperatures topping out in the low 60’s. These conditions will not last however, as an approaching cold front will bring temperatures back to near normal for this time of the year, along with renewed chances for rain. I have a map below which shows the location of our cold front marked with the blue triangles as of 12 PM Central Standard time. Out ahead of this front, we are in a warm sector with a mild and breezy southwesterly flow. As this front approaches and moves through tonight we will see a drop in temperatures and even a slight chance of a shower.

TONIGHT

Tonight’s forecast calls for mostly cloudy skies with a few passing showers, breezy with a Southwesterly wind of 15-20 mph with gusts as high as 30 mph this evening, turning to the Northwest late tonight and subsiding to 10-15 mph, with occasional gusts around 20 mph. Temperatures will be slow to fall due to the gusty winds but we should see low’s in the lower 50’s.

TOMORROW

As the cold front stalls just to the east of the area, skies will remain mostly cloudy, but we may see a few breaks before our next system arrives for the weekend.  Temperatures will be on the chilly side as the cold air rushes in with highs only near 50 degrees and dropping through the 40’s during the afternoon.  Rain looks to arrive by mid afternoon, increasing in coverage and intensity overnight.

Here is the latest NAM model which shows the timing starting between 3 and 6 PM which follows closely with our forecast.

A weak wave of low pressure will slide off to the east Friday night bringing an increase in rain. Rainfall amounts from this first system will generally be around 0.25 to 0.5 inches.

This is the Global Forecast System model showing our unsettled pattern through Monday.

WEEKEND

The weekend will remain cloudy and unsettled as several disturbances slide through the region with additional chances for rain. Temperatures will remain below normal for Saturday with highs only in the mid to upper 40’s and lows in the mid 30’s. Sunday will turn warmer as an area of low pressure tracks to our region bringing another round of light rain with highs rebounding into the mid and upper 50’s.  This warmth will be short lived as another cold front sweeps through the region Sunday night into Monday.