TODAY – Wind Advisory All Day. Severe Weather Tonight. – High: 74°
Overview: We’ve got several things happening today. This morning, we’ve dealt with fog. It’s going to be incredibly windy today – windy enough to have put us under a Wind Advisory. Finally, severe storms remain the forecast for tonight, all thanks to the system below:
Plenty of fog around this morning…enough to warrant a Dense Fog Advisory, but it expired around 8 AM and should be clearing or already have cleared.
At 9 AM, a Wind Advisory went into effect. It’ll last until midnight.
Sustained winds will be in the 20-30 mph range. Wind gusts 35-45 mph will be felt in spots.
So, yes…bad hair day. Also, keep an eye on any dead trees/trees in loose soil. They will come down easier today.
If you drive a high-profile vehicle, you’ll need to drive extra carefully today, especially if you’re on an east-west road like 840, I-40, 96 in Franklin, OHB in Brentwood, or the north side of Briley Parkway. Winds will be coming from the south and hitting your vehicle broad-side.
Some scattered showers will be around this morning:
We don’t expect these to be anything more than rain-makers. Storms hold-off until this afternoon at the earliest.
This morning, we find ourselves in an ENHANCED risk for severe thunderstorms:
As we have been telling you, the main concerns with any storms we see today are damaging winds. This means there is a 30% probability we will see damaging thunderstorm winds – 58 mph or greater – within 25 miles of us.
There is a 5% probability of a tornado within 25 miles of us. Just to our west, in the yellow hatched area, they have a 10% chance for seeing stronger tornadoes (EF2+) today. That area is way too close for comfort.
There is a 5% probability we will see 1 inch diameter hail (size of a quarter) or larger within 25 miles of us today.
It continues to look like we will see a squall line – strong line of thunderstorms – as a cold front pushes through tonight. This line will be the last of the severe stuff to move through. It will bring primarily a wind threat: powerful & damaging straight-line winds from squall lines can sometimes do damage you would attribute to a tornado. Also: it’s not unheard of to have weaker-end tornadoes embedded in squall lines. Either way, the wind threat is going to be greatest when the squall line arrives.
When will that be? Here’s what NWS Nashville says:
This lines-up perfectly with what all models are spitting-out this morning.
But….(there’s always a but)….There Could be Storms BEFORE then….
Aside from tonight’s squall line, another concern is the potential for some isolated storms out ahead of — meaning arriving before — the line. The HRRR seems like this idea of those supercells developing before/during the evening rush hour.
These storms have the potential to become supercells. Supercells not only bring the potential for hail & damaging winds of their own, but also better chances for tornadoes to develop. Current model runs suggest the most severe-supportive environment will stay west of us — but only barely west of us. We will closely watch this unfold through the afternoon.
We could potentially see a mixed-bag of severe weather today. It all depends on how unstable our atmosphere can get by this afternoon. Less stable: we’ll just be waiting on the squall line tonight. More unstable: we could be dealing with some of those isolated, strong’/supercell storms in the afternoon before the squall line gets here tonight. We’ll be updating this like crazy on Twitter this afternoon and tonight.
We’ll have a good idea of which way this will swing in the next few hours…
If the cloud cover can break-up, and we can get a little sunshine going, that will help to push us more toward unstable. Radar trends heading into the afternoon will tell us a lot, as well.
Keep up with us on Twitter today. Note — no warnings are ever posted to this website, but you will find them @NashSevereWx on Twitter and on local TV stations. Follow/Consult multiple reliable sources for your weather information today, and always.
The Rest of the Week….