We are outlooked at a Slight Risk (2/5) for severe storms this afternoon and evening. Damaging wind is the main concern. But the headline that lasts longer than today is water — a Flood Watch is in effect for all of Middle Tennessee through 6 PM Sunday, with another 1–3 inches of rain possible on top of what’s already fallen.
As of 11a, showers are coming to an end.
Good news is that during the day today looks fairly dry. Can’t totally rule out a stray shower/storm but really think most outdoor plans today you have between lunch and this evening will be dry.
Our Flood Watch goes into effect at 1p today and continues through 6p Sunday.
Multiple rounds of heavy rain will be possible from today through Sunday, bringing upwards of 3-4″+ of additional rain.
Before we get into the Flood Watch, we have continued Wattery chances today. At the time of writing (11a), showers and storms were already going, mostly confined to Davidson County.
These will continue through the afternoon and early evening. Typical hazards of heavy rain with localized flash flooding possible, lightning and gusty winds,
Another day of Wattery chances. This can be applied to everyday this week, ’tis the season.
Scattered showers and storms will be possible starting around midday, continuing thru dinnertime-ish.
No severe weather is expected, but any storm could contain heavy rain, lightning and gusty winds.
We find ourselves in quite the “rinse and repeat” pattern over the next week or so.
Medium (30-50%) Watter (water + lottery) chances exist daily, confined to the afternoon and early evening. Impossible to know exactly who sees a shower/storm and who misses out. That’s just the Wattery.
We are outlooked at a Marginal (1 of 5) risk today across Davidson and Williamson County.
Mostly sunny to start, then storms fire up through the afternoon and evening. High will top out near 92 with a heat index around 98, so hydrate if you’re outside. Rain and storm chances run about 50% through the evening, tapering off overnight with a low near 71.
Temperatures will still be hot today. Although it’s not an Extreme Heat Warning, we do have a Heat Advisory in effect until 8p. Actual air temperatures will be in the mid 90s, with heat index values near 105°. However you are celebrating America’s 250th, be sure to stay cool today.
We have one more day of our Extreme Heat Warning, that expires at 8p today. Although the heat doesn’t just totally disappear after today.
Heat index values will climb to near 110° this afternoon, as actual air temperatures make another run for the triple digits. We did hit 100° yesterday, marking the first time since August 19th, 2025.
In addition to our dangerous heat, we have a threat of severe weather to watch for this afternoon and evening.
The Storm Prediction Center has outlooked us with a 30% chance of damaging straight-line winds and a 5% chance of hail within 25 miles. No tornado concerns. The main thing we’ll be watching for will be the threat of microbursts. These water and wind loaded downdrafts can cause some issues. You can read more on them here: What is a Microburst?
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