Good news: we are no longer outlooked with any severe probabilities for today. We are north of the cold front, which effectively eliminates any concern we had for severe weather. That will all be confined to our south in MS, AL and GA.
Showers This Afternoon/Evening Then Dry Until Sunday
Very Low-End Chance for Severe Storms Tonight, Additional Showers/Storms Wednesday PM
So far today, most of the rain have been missing us to our south. I think this will be a common theme throughout this evening but can’t totally rule out a quick shower for some later.
Yesterday we discussed the possibility of an overnight round of showers/storms. This still hold true; however, there’s a low-end chance a storm or storm is strong to severe.
Multiple Rounds of Showers/Storms Tuesday and Wednesday
Nice weather will continue thru the end of today. Warm and dry.
Rain chances return sometime midday on Tuesday. Majority of the rain will stay to our N. Perhaps not a total washout.
HRRR model gives an educated guess, far from perfect:
Beneficial Rain Tuesday/Wednesday
Very nice weather today and Monday. Dry and mild.
Rain chances creep back in starting Tuesday midday and will stick around thru Wednesday night. It won’t rain the entire time; it’ll be on and off with some showers and storms. Thankfully, no severe weather is expected, just some beneficial rain.
Quiet and Cooler Weather
Well, that was a busy past two days. Thankfully yesterday afternoon/evening was fairly tame. The same cannot be said for Monday night.
On a positive note, most of us were able to pick up 1.5 – 2″ of rain, which we very much needed.
Additional Severe Weather Possible This Afternoon/Evening
When it rains, it pours.
Additional severe weather is possible again this afternoon/evening.
The Storm Prediction Center has both of our counties outlooked with the following probabilities, valid within 25 miles of a location:
All Modes of Severe Weather Possible This Evening and Overnight, More Severe Weather Possible Tuesday PM
TL;DR:
- All modes of severe weather will be possible this evening, continuing into the overnight hours, with damaging straight-line winds being the main threat
- Current expected ETA is 11p – 2a tonight, but things could begin as early as closer to sunset
- Additional severe weather is possible Tuesday evening and night
- Stay connected for any updates!
Our eyes are on our severe threat for this evening, continuing into the overnight hours.
We are outlooked with the following probabilities from the Storm Predicition Center, all valid for within 25 miles of any given point:
Severe Weather Possible Monday Night and Tuesday Night
Great weather today. Plenty of sun with temperatures peaking in the low 80s.
During the day on Monday, we’ll also be treated with nice weather. Dry with highs in the mid 80s.
Starting Monday evening, we’ll be dealing with the potential for severe weather.
Severe Weather Possible Monday Evening/Overnight
Mostly dry today. Cannot rule out a stray shower or (non-severe) thunderstorm this afternoon though – that’s something we’ll have to keep an eye on. For those with outdoor plans, proceed optimistically but keep an eye on the radar. When thunder roars, go indoors.
Scattered Showers Possible This Evening, Evolving Forecast for Monday
If you have outdoor plans today, the trend has been your friend.
Models have trended drier and drier over the past couple days. It appears likely that most of our plans during the day today will get away with being dry. Still can’t totally rule out a stray shower or storm, especially as we get into this evening, so keeping the rain gear handy is a good idea.
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