Quick Look Forecast

Wednesday

What: Damaging Winds (Main Threat), Large Hail, & (a Smaller) Tornado Threat

Storms will form a long line on radar, called a squall line, which will quickly speed through Wednesday morning. They should be packing quite the punch:

1. Damaging straight-line winds are the most likely severe weather threat.
2. Large hail is the next most likely hazard.
3. Less likely, but still possible, is a brief tornado embedded in the squall line.

The probability of any of these happening withing 25 miles of you is 30%. read more

Quick Look Forecast

A Break in the Rain Tuesday Night as Strong/Severe Storms Build to our West

A significant severe weather event is setting up today and tonight along and north of the Ohio River.

This is the system that will set off storms with severe weather potential for us Wednesday morning. read more

Quick Look Forecast

Rain This Morning, Lull This Evening

It has been a soggy commute to work and school with showers a few rumbles of thunder. The HRRR model below shows how the rest of the day may play out on radar, and where we might get a break this evening in the wet weather: read more

Quick Look Forecast

Tuesday Morning Rain

Latest run of the HRRR has showers entering during the early AM hours.

These showers will likely be scattered and continue through the entire day.  An isolated thunderstorm or two will be possible as well. read more

Rainy Monday

Light rain will arrive while we sleep, and continue through the morning commute. The HRRR model thinks this rain will last through mid-morning:

Other models, particularly the NAM3 model, think the rain could linger off and on into Monday afternoon. read more

Growing Concerns About Storms Wednesday

But first, let’s talk today thru Tuesday.

Sunday

Sun this morning will turn into clouds later today and tonight. The HRRR model shows light rain approaching by midnight.

Expect light rain while we sleep tonight. read more

Quick Glance Forecast

Warmer, Rain/Storms To Start the Work Week

Southerly winds and moisture return will “restart” on Sunday night into Monday morning — this will lead to climbing temperatures and increased chances for rain.

It appears the Monday morning commute could be wet. Scattered showers into Tuesday are a good bet, with a couple storms possible but not overly likely. Tuesday, the mercury will approach 70º!

Wednesday is a day when instability will be the greatest, and this could aid in decent thunderstorm development. A preliminary look at CAPE (storm food) forecasts from the GFS show a respectable amount of unstable air on Wednesday at lunchtime:

In lieu of this, the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a 15% risk for severe weather already for Wednesday:

SPC Discussion:

...lower MS Valley and TN Valley on Wednesday... Strong belt of mid-level flow coupled with increasing low-level moisture will probably support marginal-moderate buoyancy with a strong shear profile. The timing of a cold front appears to converge on Wednesday as it sweeps through the area. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast, some of which could be severe. read more

Current Radar

Windy and Warm This Afternoon

With a max high temperature of 81° this afternoon, we have officially broken the long standing record for the day from 1890.

81° the official high so far today. The previous record was 77° set back in 1890. read more

This Just Isn’t Winter – Near Springtime High Temps

We cannot emphasize enough how unusually warm these last several days have been. The trend will continue through Friday before, finally, a cold front sweeps away the unseasonably hot air and replaces it with air ~20 to 30º cooler.

Using the NWS graphical forecast, look at the temperature trend for the next several days:

In 24 hours, a 33º difference in high temperature forecasts…wow.

Windy, Storms Possible Friday, Some Strong

As mentioned, a cold front will send us back to more winter-like temperatures. In order to get to that point, however, we will have to make it through a chance for rain and thunderstorms Friday afternoon. In addition, winds could gust as high as 30 mph during the day on Friday.

The latest thinking from NWS Nashville:

The actual fropa (frontal passage) will occur Friday evening with showers and tstms accompanying the front. With high temps reaching 80 degrees on Friday, there will be plenty of lower level instability. Furthermore, as some upper level energy begins to catch up with the boundary, organized linear omega fields will engage with favorable shear levels. Thus, a round of strong to svr tstms looks possible, mainly for areas east of I-65, during the evening. Damaging winds looks to be the primary threat. read more

Mild Weather Pattern Continues Through Friday

A Look At Our Temperatures to End the Work Week

With highs through Friday expected to be in the 70s, we do have the possibility of breaking a record to finish the week.

The forecast high for Friday is currently 77°. The standing record on February 22nd all the way from 1890 is 77°. So, with our forecast high being so close to the current record, I’d keep an eye on Friday read more