Potentially Record Breaking Highs to Start the Week

Current Radar

Trick or Treat Forecast: Partly Cloudy- 5 PM 82° 9 PM 71°

Great weather in store for us this evening for those with plans to go out with the kiddos. No jacket needed tonight; you may even need to roll up your sleeves if you have a long-sleeved costume because it is gonna be a bit toasty tonight.

Tuesday: Sunny Skies – Early 60° High 86°

If you like clear skies with lots of sunshine, then Tuesday is the day for you. Another day with more clear skies.

Main story tomorrow is with our high temperatures. Current record high temperature for November 1st is 85° which occurred in 1935. The current forecast high is 1 degree above that. Looks like 2016 may claim another record high temperature.

NWS Nashville also had this to say this afternoon:

“We will see record monthly warmth tomorrow which will be the 1st day of November. In fact, the highest temperature at BNA during the month of November is 85. We are expecting 86!….so record warmth indeed.”

Rest of the Week: More Sun, Maybe A Little Rain Thursday

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Above average temps continue into Wednesday. Record high for November 2nd (Wednesday) is 83°, so we could potentially tie that high.

Into Thursday, a weak cold front will be passing through which could bring some showers. If we see these showers, they may be enough to water the lawn, but no where near enough to help out our current drought situation.

Look at the high temperature for Friday though. Even if we don”t get showers Thursday, at least we will be seeing some more seasonal temperatures into the weekend.

Allergy Report: 5-Day Pollen.com Forecast

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This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Hot Again Tomorrow, Nice Trick-or-Treating, Record Heat Possible Tuesday

More Record Heat? Yeah, Probably.

Monday. The forecast is 83°, two degrees shy of the October 31 record 1950: 85°.

Tuesday.  Another record should fall. The hottest November 1 on record is 84°, set in 2000. As you would expect, that 84° is also the hottest November temp ever recorded at BNA. We expect 86° sometime Tuesday afternoon.

Trick or Treat

No rain. Temps will be falling into the upper 70°s when the doorbells start ringing, 75° by 7 PM, 69° by 10 PM. Light winds (under 5 MPH).

And please, no apples. Be cool.

We repeat:

Why? When Will This Stop?

People often ask: what’s causing this record heat? The answer is high pressure and south winds at the surface, with high pressure and warm temperatures aloft.

High pressure is in charge here on the surface:

High pressure aloft remains over just about all of the U.S. Aloft, the low pressure and upper level winds (around 18,000 feet) in the blue are way too far north. They have been stuck there for a while, and they should be there for a while. Hard to get a weather pattern change to fall when those winds are stuck in Canada and in the Pacific NW.

Ensemble models suggest this hot pattern will be a memory in a few weeks. Yeah, weeks.

Next Rain Chance

Clouds will build Wednesday, delivering some rain chances Thursday. It’ll be a light rain.

The drought will be around a while.

These rain chances Thursday are happening because those upper level winds and lower pressure aloft will finally get south from Canada:

The Next Weekend Guess

The pattern shift aloft will take us out of the 80° Thursday through the weekend, but we will still be running warmer than usual. Cooler temps, no rain expected.

Wait for (we think/hope) mid-November for some real fall weather.

Current Radar

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

3 Chances for Record Highs, Trick or Treat, Next Rain Chance

Three Days of Mid 80°, Three Chances for Record Heat

Today. The record for October 30 is 84°, set in 1950. We’re forecast to hit 85°, but that may not happen as a weak trough moves our way, lowering the humidity and denting our heat-building high pressure dome just enough to maybe keep us below 85°. Still, that hot.

Monday. The October 31 record is also from 1950: 85°. Some high clouds may prevent us from getting there, hence the forecast is 84°.

Tuesday. The best chance for a record to fall. The hottest November 1 on record is 84°, set in 2000. As you would expect, that 84° is also the hottest November temp ever recorded at BNA.

Trick or Treat

No rain. Temps will be falling into the upper 70°s when the doorbells start ringing, 76° by 7 PM, 69 by 10 PM. Winds warm and light, under 5 MPH. And please, no apples. Be cool.

We repeat:

Why? When Will This Stop?

People often ask: what’s causing this record heat? The answer is high pressure and south winds at the surface, with high pressure and warm temperatures aloft.

High pressure is in charge here on the surface:

High pressure aloft remains over just about all of the U.S. Aloft, the low pressure and upper level winds (around 18,000 feet) in the blue are way too far north. They have been stuck there for a while, and they should be there for a while. Hard to get a weather pattern change to fall when those winds are stuck in Canada and in the Pacific NW.

Ensemble models suggest this hot pattern will be a memory in a few weeks. Yeah, weeks.

Next Rain Chance

Clouds will build Wednesday, delivering some rain chances Thursday.

This is a “chance” and is by no means guaranteed, but we feel OK about it. That’s the good news. The bad news is this is not much rain and it will do very little to dent our drought:

These rain chances Thursday are happening because those upper level winds and lower pressure aloft will finally get south from Canada:

The Next Weekend Guess

The pattern shift aloft will take us out of the 80° Thursday through the weekend, but we will still be running warmer than usual. Cooler temps, no rain expected.

Wait for (we think/hope) mid-November for some real fall weather.

Current Radar

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Heat Continues, No Tricks, Just Treats On Oct. 31

Current Radar

Tonight: A Few Clouds, Temps in the 60s

A weak trough is anticipated to move across middle TN overnight, bringing an increase in moisture…but not by much. Some cloud development may occur with the uptick in humidity, but no rain is forecast.

Temperatures through the evening drop back into the lower 70s and mid-to-upper 60s. This is still, at least, about 10 degrees above normal for late October.

Sunday: “Rain or Cooler Weather?” Try Again! – Wake Up 58° High 85° 

Asking if we’re going to see cooler, more fall-like weather for Sunday is like asking if Charlie Brown will actually get to kick the football this year. Lucy (and Mother Nature) just won’t let it happen. But maybe one day.

Middle 80s across Davidson/Williamson Co. are expected again, although record breaking heat will not be as easily attainable Sunday as it will be today.

Extended Outlook: Very Little Opportunity For Rain

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“Under pressure” — high pressure, that is — is what the work week appears to be dictated by. Low to middle 80s for afternoon highs, near 60° each morning, and no rain expected. Models are trying to work out some differences by Thursday-Friday with an upper level trough. How far southeast will it propagate? Will we see little to any rain? These are questions we’ll have better answers to as the week progresses.

Trick-or-Treat Forecast: One of the Warmest On Record – 5 PM, 82° 9 PM, 69°

You might consider putting one of those freezer packs that normally go in lunch boxes into your kids’ candy bucket to prevent any chocolate melt. It’s seriously going to be that warm for tricks and treating this Monday.

Drought Index: Moderate Drought Conditions Continuing

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Allergy Report: 5-Day Pollen.com Forecast

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This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Pool Weather For Saturday, No Rain For Awhile

Current Radar

Tonight: Great Friday Night Under the Lights

Are you planning on seeing some competitive high school football tonight? If so, you’re in for a treat.

A jacket or blanket may come in handy, but for the most part, temps fall through the low 70s and upper 60s from kickoff to halftime. A very comfortable night, indeed.

Saturday: Attempting Another Record – Wake Up 56° High 85° 

NWS Nashville wrote this AM:

Right now have 85 for a high Saturday afternoon which would break the record of 83 set back in 1950.

In some spots around Davidson/Williamson Co., we could get above 85°. I’m almost wondering if local pools and water parks are regretting shutting down on Labor Day.

Yes, the slip ‘n slide would probably be okay to pull back out for some fun in the sun.

Extended Outlook: We Need Rain!

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Trick-or-Treat Forecast: No Umbrellas or Heavy Coats, Just Lots of Candy – 5 PM, 82° 9 PM, 68°

With high confidence, no one accompanying their kiddos will have to worry about rain or cold temps for trick-or-treating this year. Enjoy a fun night, getting all sorts of chocolate and sour stuff…and remember, sharing is caring.

Drought Index: Moderate Drought Conditions

With no rain in the forecast for another 6+ days, this drought meter is likely to go up.

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Allergy Report: 5-Day Pollen.com Forecast

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This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

More Sunshine, Temperatures Continue to Climb

Current Radar

Tonight: Partly Cloudy – 9 PM 62°

Another fantastic evening to follow our fair weather day. Clouds will build back in a bit from the afternoon. Temps for the evening will fall pretty steadily through the 70s into the low 60s by 9PM.

Titans Game Forecast:

Great, rain-free afternoon for those tailgating for the Thursday Night football game this evening. Partly cloudy skies will prevail through the night. You may want a light jacket once the sun sets as temperatures will fall pretty quickly.

Kickoff: 67°

Winds: North at 6 mph

Friday: More Sunshine – Wake Up 52° High 80°

We will end the work week the same way we started it, sunny and warm. Will be a bit warmer than we started the week, but hey it’ll be Friday.

Weekend Outlook: Sunny, May Set A Record…Again

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Have weekend plans? They look to once again be in the clear of any rain.

High pressure looks to build back into our area, bringing those sunny and dry conditions. With this high pressure, we will also see an increase in our high temperatures.

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Speaking of high temperatures, we could potentially break or tie another high temperature record. The current record high temperature for this upcoming Saturday (10/29) is 83° which occurred in 1950. The forecast high for Saturday right now is 84°. Looks like 2016 may set another record.

olympics again 1980 ice hockey miracle

Trick or Treat Forecast: Full of Clear Skies and Candy | 5 PM – 81° 9 PM – 69°

As we move closer to Monday night, our weather conditions continue to look wonderful. Mostly clear skies through the evening. Temps may be a bit warmer than originally expected, but nonetheless will be great to walk outside and get some candy.

Drought Index Update: Abnormally Dry to Moderate Drought Conditions

Our weekly U.S. Drought Monitor updates every Thursday morning, therefore it was updated this morning. Eastern portions of Davidson and Williamson Counties are both now included in a moderate drought category, with the rest of each county in the abnormally dry category.

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We really need some rain, but it doesn’t look like we will be getting any anytime soon.

Allergy Report: 5-Day Pollen.com Forecast

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This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Dry, Sunny Conditions. A Drop of Rain Possible Tonight

Current Radar

Tonight: Evening Plans Are a Go, Could Get a Drizzle Overnight – 9 PM 69°

Clouds will be increasing as we head into the evening hours. That small chance of rain lingers around, but most models suggest that the best chances (still only a 20% probability) will not arrive until the overnight hours.

If you have any outdoor plans this evening, it will feel great outside! Temps will be in the 70s to start the evening before dipping down into the 60s by 9PM.

As we head into the overnight hours, the question becomes will it even rain? A few models have us seeing very small showers in the early morning hours tomorrow.

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NWS Nashville had this to say about the rain possibility overnight:

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So, even if you win the rain lottery tonight, probably will only see enough to water your grass…if that.

Thursday: Cloud Coverage Decreasing, Partly Sunny – Wake Up 60° High 79°

Starting off the day tomorrow with a decent amount of cloud coverage. As the day progresses, those clouds will dwindle out and the sun will continue to shine.

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Clouds will help to keep our high temps a bit lower than on Wednesday, but since they will begin to dissipate by the afternoon, still will see high temps in the upper 70s.

Thursday Night: Partly Cloudy

Whether you are staying in for the evening, or heading to Nissan Stadium for the Titans game, our Thursday night continues to look great.

If you have outdoor plans, temps will be in the 70s to start the evening, but fall into the 60s as the night progresses. Our partly cloudy skies will help to keep temps fairly warm in the evening, but you may want a light jacket with you if you have any outdoor plans.

Kickoff: 68°

Wind: Light NNW wind 5 mph

Extended Outlook: Dry. Sunny. Warm.

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The only thing that looks different day to day is the high and low temperatures. Same graphic. Same sunshine. Same dry conditions. For those that have weekend plans, embrace this continuing awesome weather.

Trick or Treat Forecast: Full of Clear Skies and Candy | 5 PM – 78° 9 PM – 66°

Whether you plan to take the kiddos out early or a little bit later, fantastic weather is in store next Monday night. Sunny skies will prevail through the day, with clear skies into the evening. If you plan trick or treat in the late evening hours, you may want to bring a light jacket along.

Allergy Report: 5-Day Pollen.com Forecast

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This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Same Old Song and Dance, Rain Hard to Come By

Current Radar

Tonight: Relaxing, Clear and Cool

A steady drop through the 60s tonight will feel rather comfortable. If you’re headed out for a prolonged period of time this evening, a jacket might be nice.

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Wednesday: Will It Even Rain? – Wake Up 53° High 80°

Warmer for Wednesday, and we even have a slight chance of rain! Well…

4KM NAM 7PM Wednesday

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So where’s the rain on this model? There is some, but very little. So little in fact, we believe you’ll be lucky to see any rain between late Wednesday and early Thursday morning. A very, very low chance of rain, however, does exist.

Don’t expect this to lessen the effects of our abnormally dry conditions.

Extended Outlook:

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Above average temperatures appear to continue for the remainder of the week. No measurable rainfall means we stay practically bone dry. A nice soaking rain is definitely on most folks’ wish list.

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Allergy Report: 5-Day Pollen.com Forecast

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This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Dry Fall Weather Continues, Very Slight Chance of Showers by Mid-Week

Current Radar

Tonight: A Bit Cooler, Clear Skies – 9 PM 56°

A pleasant evening to follow our pleasant day expected for us tonight. All outdoor plans are a go; you may want to grab a jacket before heading out the door though.

Temps will cool very quickly this evening, thanks to our clear skies and the passing cold front from this afternoon. You may also want to grab an extra blanket before heading to sleep for the night.

Tuesday: Sunny Skies – Wake Up 46° High 74°

Slight cool down in temperatures expected as we head into tomorrow. Sunny skies will prevail through the entire day, but temps will be fairly chilly on your AM commute dipping down into the upper 40s/low 50s.

High temperature for the day will reach into the mid 70s

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Rest of the Week: Slight Chance of Rain Wednesday Night/Thursday, Then Sunshine Again

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Our extended outlook consists of mostly sunny skies with highs in the 70s. We could see a small shower and isolated thunderstorm Wednesday night into Thursday morning, but any rain we see won’t do very much.

Here is what our local NWS had to say this morning:

“While soundings are showing the potential for an isolated thunderstorm, this system will mainly consist of a shower or two, with rainfall totals of less than 0.25 inches. This is unfortunate with the lack of rain we’ve had lately. October is typically a dry month but even this is ridiculous. We`re already running close to 2 inches below normal for the month and I don`t see much relief in sight.”

Even if we see some showers, that will not come close to putting even a dent in the “abnormally dry” drought we are currently in.

Allergy Report: 5-Day Pollen.com Forecast

5-day-pollen-allergy-forecast-for-nashville-tn-37201-_-pollen-com-google-chrome-2016-10-24-08-17-02

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Next Chance of Rain: Late Wednesday-Thursday

An Uneventful Forecast

The only chance for rain will be Wednesday night into Thursday, but the system will move pretty far north of us, leaving us only with a little moisture to work with.

We Could Use The Rain

We don’t “need” the rain; those to our SE are the ones who “need” it.

Currently, our rainfall deficit is -1.68″ in October and -3.85″ for the year. That deficit will increase each day this week under our sunny skies.

“Abnormally Dry”

The Drought Monitor has us in its first drought category: “Abnormally Dry.”

 

 

What about that rain chance late Wednesday or Thursday?

This morning’s GFS model runs showed barely more than a trace of rain. This afternoon’s GFS model run predicts a little more than that, thinking most of the rain will fall east of 65. Draw few/no conclusions from this, and if drawing few conclusions from this, forget those.

The NAM illustrates the “more rain” going north of us and the “less rain” coming our way Thursday:

The Euro has barely a trace of rain from this system.

This isn’t going to do much to dent the little drought going on, assuming it even happens. Forecast confidence on Sunday for a Thursday-ish rain event like this is low.

The Next Weekend Guess

Looks dry. Models suggest a weak, moisture-lacking front swinging in.

Current Radar

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.