More Rain Tonight, December Arrives Tomorrow

Current Radar 

More rain is here. It’ll stick around at least through the overnight hours.

HRRR does a good job of illustrating the off/on nature (mostly “on”) of the rain tonight.

Notice how, after midnight, the rain intensifies, signaling the approach of the cold front. We cannot rule out a thunderstorm or two, although that’s unlikely. Certainly no severe weather is expected, but don’t be alarmed if you hear a rumble of thunder.

We’ve already seen more than 2″ of rain from this system. We expect another 1″ or so tonight/overnight. However, flood concerns are east of us. NWS-Nashville posted a Flood Watch for areas to our east, where they’ve seen more rain the past few days, and are expected to get more than us overnight.

Still, it’s going to rain a lot, and we cannot rule out minor flooding on the roads overnight. Be safe, go so, when in doubt, go around.

 

Rain Will Linger Into Tuesday; Getting Colder – Wake Up 56°, High 57°

The passage of the cold front means we won’t have the typical “colder in the morning, warmer in the afternoon” temp day. Cooler air will be spilling in all day, but the influence of the afternoon sun-behind-the-clouds will offset the drop in temperature. We’ll actually be warmest just after midnight early Tuesday morning (62°), then slowly tumbling into the mid-50°s before falling into the upper 40° Tuesday night.

Rain should end before sundown Tuesday evening, probably well before then.

After That, We Chill Out

Things look pretty calm Wednesday through the weekend. Temps will return to their seasonal/typical values, with temps skirting freezing early Thursday-Sunday mornings, highs in the 50°s. You know, December.

The next chance of rain looks to be sometime in early Monday.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Widespread Rain this Afternoon & Tonight

Current Radar 

Today – Rain This Afternoon High: 61°

It is the perfect day to stay home and just shop online for Cyber Monday.

It is pretty dreary out there today, with temperatures reaching the low 60s under an overcast sky.

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We wil have a break in the rain this morning then more showers will move in this afternoon.

Mon 12

There is a flood watch through Tuesday evening for counties to the east of us.

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The rain will continue to move from west to east through the afternoon today.

Monday 6pm

Tuesday – The Rain Continues High: 57°

The showers will stick around through the overnight hours as a cold front sweeps through early Tuesday morning.

TUES 3 AM Tuesday 4 am

Dew points will drop below 50° as dry air filters in during the afternoon hours.

Temperatures will also cool off into the upper 30s when waking up on Wednesday under an overcast sky.

Some areas could see up to 3″ to 4″ of rain from Monday through Wednesday morning. Make sure to keep the headlights on and take it easy on roadways.

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Wednesday – Cooler Waking Up: 39° High: 55°

Showers will linger in the morning hours mainly to the east on Wednesday then taper off by the afternoon. We will begin to see breaks in the clouds after lunchtime.

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Extended: Wednesday night will be a chilly one with temperatures near the freezing mark. The sunshine returns on Thursday with temperatures in the low 50s.

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This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

More Rain Coming

Current Radar 

Few more days of rain, y’all.

As you see from the above radar, the rain is here, and should remain through the evening.

Here’s the HRRR model through Monday morning:

We expect a break in the rain Monday morning, but by the afternoon, rain chances go back up.

 

Rain, Thunderstorms Overnight Monday – Tuesday

Overnight Monday into Tuesday morning, rain will increase in coverage and intensity. This comes with a chance of thunderstorms, but nothing severe is expected.

Considering the rain we’ve had, the rain we’ll get Sunday and Monday, and the rain to come Tuesday, flooding could become a problem Tuesday.

Those areas that see heavier thunderstorms — and therefore heavier rain — could enhance flooding potential. However, the heavier rain is expected to our south and southeast. The NWS in Nashville is talking about maybe issuing a Flash Flood Watch for those areas.

Rain will pull east of us sometime Tuesday or Tuesday night. Behind that, cooler temps.

Remember that mention of Friday snow in yesterday’s forecast? It’s gone from the forecast.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Rain Details

Current Radar 

When we look out west, there’s a pretty big break in the rain.

There’s plenty more rain coming over the next few days. The immediate question is: what about this afternoon?

Well, the HRRR model thinks it’ll rain steadily this afternoon and tonight.

It’s hard to believe the HRRR lately, which has been overestimating – at times wildly overestimating – rainfall totals.

The NAM4 model seems to be handling this better — delivering a mid-morning and early afternoon rain lull — only for the rain to increase in coverage and intensity after halftime of the Titans game. Here it is:

I suspect the models are mishandling the amount of rain we will see, and we will actually see less rain than forecast. Still, anyone going outside today is crazy not to bring rain gear.

Rain should continue tonight, then winding down overnight into early Monday morning.

Light Rain Monday – Wake Up 51°, Highs 63°

We still think it’ll rain, but it should be lighter, and less of it.

Rain, Thunderstorms Overnight Monday – Tuesday

Overnight Monday into Tuesday morning, rain will increase in coverage and intensity. Why? The strong cold front that’s been sitting to our west for days will finally arrive.

This comes with a chance of thunderstorms, but nothing severe is expected.

Considering the rain we’ve had, the rain we’ll get Sunday and Monday, and the rain to come Tuesday, flooding could become a problem Tuesday.

Those areas that see heavier thunderstorms — and therefore heavier rain — could enhance flooding potential.

Remember that mention of Friday snow in yesterday’s forecast? It’s gone from the forecast.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Rain “Categorical”

Current Radar 

More Rain Tonight

So far, just 0.07″ in the official rain can (through 2:53 PM), but that’s only going to increase.

NWS has our precip chances at “categorical,” which is code for

Light/Moderate rainfall will continue tonight and last through the weekend.

As for temps, a front is draped across west Tennessee. We’re on the “warm” side of it.

This front is super slow. Eventually it’ll shove across Sunday, and keep temps in the 50°s.

Sunday: Rain. Gross. Wake Up 53°, High 58°

This light/moderate rain will continue through the day. Between 1″ and 2″ total is expected.

Expect rain the entire game.

Rain Monday-Tuesday, Highs 61° and 60°

Rain should continue Monday, but we should see a little break during the day, before it picks up again Monday night. Rain will end sometime Tuesday.

What About This Mention of Snow?

Settle down, fish.

Let’s carefully listen to what NWS has actually said here.

It’s based on the GFS/DGEX models, and even those look unsupportive of even a little precip, much less snow.

Note that the Euro model has us high and dry.

There are several other conditions. If the GFS/DGEX is right, if there’s a “possible closed low” (which models do not indicate now), if the timing is right – arriving during the wee hours of the morning, when temperatures are low, there is a “slight chance of a rain/snow mixture after midnight Thursday night into at least the mid morning hours on Friday.” That is to say, if all those things happen, which seems pretty unlikely, we would still only get a slight chance of a rain/snow mixture. And if any of those assumptions are wrong, the conclusions are wrong.

I went ahead and looked further at the most snow happy of all the models, the GFS, and pulled up the forecast sounding for midnight Thursday night and 6 AM Friday morning.

So why did I write all this to say it’s not going to snow?

I wanted to nip it in the bud.

It’s snow silly season. We have arrived at that time of year where some models will spit out snow solutions for 5+ days away, and few of them verify, meaning, they’re very often wrong. Forecasting snow in a mid-latitude place like Nashville is very difficult even 12 hours before the event. There are too many variables in play and the science isn’t good enough. It’s a lot like betting on picking the exact score of a basketball game that hasn’t yet started.

And this event — it doesn’t even really show snow.

But, it’s important that you have all the information. Please don’t be this guy this winter:

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

The Rain is Here, & Getting Out Ahead of the Friday Sn*w Rumor

Current Radar 

Rain Today, High 67°

The rain is here. It will start off light, and gradually pick up in intensity tonight. Only 0.20″ expected, but that’s enough to rain us out.

Rain Tomorrow, Wake Up 53°, High Only 58°

Rain will continue overnight. From 6 PM to 6 AM, 0.36′ is expected. That’s a lot of rain.

A steady, soaking rain is expected during the day Sunday, making tomorrow’s Titans game more miserable than normal.

Rain Monday-Tuesday, Highs 61° and 60°

Rain should continue Monday, but not as heavy. Today through Monday, 1″ to 2″ is expected, total. There may just enough instability to squeeze off a few innocent thunderstorms, but no big deal.

Rain will end sometime Tuesday.

What About This Mention of Snow

Settle down, fish.

Let’s carefully listen to what NWS has actually said here.

It’s based on the GFS/DGEX models, and even those look unsupportive of even a little precip, much less snow.

Note that the Euro model has us high and dry.

There are several other conditions. If the GFS/DGEX is right, if there’s a “possible closed low” (which models do not indicate now), if the timing is right – arriving during the wee hours of the morning, when temperatures are low, there is a “slight chance of a rain/snow mixture after midnight Thursday night into at least the mid morning hours on Friday.” That is to say, if all those things happen, which seems pretty unlikely, we would still only get a slight chance of a rain/snow mixture. And if any of those assumptions are wrong, the conclusions are wrong.

I went ahead and looked further at the most snow happy of all the models, the GFS, and pulled up the forecast sounding for midnight Thursday night and 6 AM Friday morning.

So why did I write all this to say it’s not going to snow?

I wanted to nip it in the bud.

It’s snow silly season. We have arrived at that time of year where some models will spit out snow solutions for 5+ days away, and few of them verify, meaning, they’re very often wrong. Forecasting snow in a mid-latitude place like Nashville is very difficult even 12 hours before the event. There are too many variables in play and the science isn’t good enough. It’s a lot like betting on picking the exact score of a basketball game that hasn’t yet started.

And this event — it doesn’t even really show snow.

But, it’s important that you have all the information. Please don’t be this guy this winter:

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Rain On The Way

Current Radar 

Another Current Radar:

The radar has shown rain in West Tennessee most of the day, but none of it has moved into Middle Tennessee. High pressure to our east has seen to that.

But, the rain is coming, slowly but surely. Check out the NWS line through Tuesday:

The HRRR model thinks we’ll see rain late tonight and into Saturday morning:

However, the HRRR has been predicting rain most of the day, and none of that materialized. So, I’d be skeptical. Pack a light rain jacket, probably won’t need it.

This afternoon, our NWS upgraded Saturday rain chances from “maybe not” to “probably,” but the models don’t agree on timing.

Models agree rain chances will increase as the weekend progresses, and after some rain during the day Saturday, all models suggests it will be raining harder Saturday night.

Rain will continue Sunday as the cold front arrives in NW Middle Tennessee and a weak area of low pressure rides the cold front.

Rain totals appear less dramatic than they did earlier this morning, but still, 1″ or more is a reasonable estimate, which would make for a wet Titans game.

After a brief reprieve Sunday night, rain will linger Monday and Tuesday, before finally clearing out early Wednesday morning.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

When’s It Going To Rain?

Current Radar 

High Pressure Keeping Rain Away Most of Today – High 70°

The HRRR thinks we’ll see rain arrive this afternoon and tonight:

However, much of this just isn’t happening, at least not in Middle Tennessee. To account for a stray drizzler, NWS-Nashville has introduced “sprinkles” into our afternoon forecast. The real rain should stay well off to the west.

Tonight, we may see a bit more of a rain chance, but not much. If going outside, pack a light rain jacket, but you probably won’t need it.

This “almost, maybe, not quite” rain pattern will be the rule Saturday as well. Even though it’s cloudy now . . .

. . . the actual rain is moving painfully slowly our way, and should not arrive in full effect until late Saturday night and into Sunday. (Note: that should say 9:44 AM, not PM).

Unseasonably warm temps will continue through Saturday (high 67°).

Expect a lot of rain Sunday, up to 2″, or at least the WPC thinks we may see that much.

Local estimates are less than this; either way, Sunday looks like a washout.

Early next week, a cold front will have arrived to take the temps back down, but the rain chances will continue:

No storms, certainly no snow, just rain.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Rain Creeping Closer

Current Radar 

Temps today have been 10° to 15° above normal.

Out west, a winter storm is brewing.

We won’t get the “winter,” but we’ll get the rain.

Overnight, winds from the S/SE will bring in warmer and more humid air, but the rain out west will be blocked by high pressure sittin’ over the Gulf Coast. Sooooo….

Expect light rain showers to slowly spread in Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, with rain chances increasing each day. Not feeling too good about getting the timing right.

Friday – We Don’t Want to Say it Won’t Rain, But We Think It Won’t – Wake Up 54°, High 69°

The GFS model thinks we’ll see rain Friday night, but all the other models say “dry,” at least until very late Friday night.

Saturday – Better Chance of Rain – Wake Up 55°, High 66°

The rain axis gets closer, but kinda straddles I-40. Rain chances are better, I’ll be surprised if it’s not raining Saturday night, if not sooner.

In fact, the NAM4 model has rain arriving by midnight Friday evening, which would mean a light rain event Saturday:

Sunday – Rain – Wake Up 55°, High 62°

The rain axis stalls on us, and should dump a good bit of rain. Probably a washout, especially late, when we think the skies will open.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Happy Thanksgiving and maybe a wet weekend…

Current Radar 

Happy Thanksgiving! Today…High of 68º

Today’s weather will be great. We’ll see mostly sunny skies and warm temps. Things begin changing tomorrow. Clouds and humidity will increase overnight.

Black Friday. Wake up 50º High of 65º

Clouds will be firmly in place all day, but rain stays away.

Saturday… Warm and chance of afternoon rain. High of 66º

Warm and humid air will give way to showers on Saturday.  We could see some light rain early, becoming more widespread Saturday afternoon and into Sunday.

Here’s the GFS Model prediction for Saturday morning.

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Extended…

7-Day Forecast for Latitude 36.17°N and Longitude 86.78°W (Elev. 479 ft) 2015-11-26 08-59-01