Scattered Storms, Hot/Humid Thru Labor Day…Then Heat Relief

Sunday & Monday

Overview. A series of shortwaves (rain/storms) will be diving NW to SE Sunday & Monday. Monday night, a cold-front will sweep the rain and humidity.

Temps. Monday should be a bit cooler than Sunday. Outside the pockets of rain/storm activity, temps will be in the mid 90s Sunday, and low 90s Monday. The heat index will be dancing around the mid to upper 90s Sunday, and in the low 90s Monday.

Rain/Storms. No washout either day, but we may see a few drive-by showers or storms. “At most, we expect mainly strong storms with isolated severe storms. The freezing level remains much too high for large hail at the surface, so strong downbursts (winds), lightning, and heavy rainfall remain the primary threats for these storms.” (NWS, Saturday Afternoon Forecast Discussion, 8/31/13).

We don’t know exactly when/where these storms will develop, but they are more likely afternoon, especially during the peak daytime heating hours.

Tuesday & Beyond

After the cold front clears us out Monday night, it’ll be cooler (highs in the mid 80s) and drier. Rain looks unlikely until at least Saturday.

Mother Nature Knows…

Mother Nature* knows that College FOOTBAW (Editor’s Note: this misspelling appears to be intentional; draw your own inferences) season has begun. It just wouldn’t be tailgating for the opening game of the season if we didn’t burn ourselves to a crisp like those brats/hotdogs/hamburgers/bacon wrapped jalepenos filled with cream cheese (ya buddy).

We all got to watch the opening night heatbreaker/miracle (depending on where your bread is buttered) last night with the Ole Miss vs Vandy game. The lesser-talked-about-thing about that game was the fact that earlier in the day our heat indices were dang near 100. It was probably lesser talked about because it just simply wasn’t going to stop us rabid college FOOTBAW fans from partaking in what we have been waiting for all year. As mentioned, before Mother Nature made sure to bring us that scorching heat and oppressive direct sunlight to make us realize we are thirsty but delirious enough to think to quench it with…shall we say…beverages that aren’t designed to do that. So why do we do this to ourselves?

waterboy

The opening day FOOTBAW festivities are not over with either. Whether it is Friday night lights at Nashville area high schools, watching Texas Tech open the Kliff Kingsbury Era against SMU with a true freshman walk-on by the name of Baker Mayfield, or that other game no one in this area cares about (cough), the air is primed and ready for you to get outside, sweat, re-hydrate, sweat some more, and watch some FOOTBAW!

As of 3 PM, Nashville was 93 over 70, which basically means it’s gross outside. There are two things wrong with an atmosphere like this. First, it feels like you could quench your thirst by breathing, and second there are usually showers nearby. Taking a look at the (Editor’s Note: comically, if not symbolically, blurred) OHX radar at 3 PM, we see this:

1

Much like yesterday, isolated showers and storms developing in the afternoon hours that are just as excited for FOOTBAW as we all are. The 90+ air temperatures and 70+ dewpoint temperatures rarely mean a quiet radar. The atmosphere is full of energy and us meteorologists have this thing called CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy or Crap that Allows Precipitation to Ensue) that we use to measure that. The HRRR illustrates where the max energy will be located at 7 PM tonight:

cape

On a normal summer day, you see CAPE values in the 1000-3000 J/KG range. Today…uh…a little bit more. So to say we have a chance of storms this afternoon and evening…I’d say that’s fair. Good news though, CAPE comes from heating. Heating comes from sunlight. Thus, after that sun goes down, the storm chances will go down with it.

“But M&M, if the air has so much energy, shouldn’t we expect bad storms?”

Mmmmm…M&M’s. I mean…wait…what was the question? Oh, yeah that.

No, probably not. Reason being, although the low level atmosphere (what you and I feel on the ground) is plenty moist for us to feel gross, its not like that very high up in the atmosphere today. Thus, any storms that start will have a hard time building. Looky here:

 

skewt

 

Green line far from red line = dry. Dry = storm poison. Couple that info with the fact that we have downward motion overall in the vertical column and yeah…don’t worry about the storms. Worst case scenario you get a little wind and a nifty light show.

The weekend will be more of the same. Hot, gross, kinda stormy in the afternoons, with some gusty wind and lightning potential but all in all what you would hope for in the first College FOOTBAW Saturday of the year.

Well it is now 3:18 PM which means it is exactly 3 hours and 42 minutes until that interesting Texas Tech vs SMU game. Better get ready. Wreckem! FOOTBAW!

M&M out.

Mysterious Meteorologist

(*the official position of NashSevereWx.com is that Mother Nature does not exist).

Tonight’s Football/LOTG Forecast (Rain?). Weekend: Humid + Possible Storms

Tonight – Steamy. Rain A Huge Underdog – High 94

Officially the hottest day of August 2013. Our heat index has been at and around 100! Please keep cool and take the necessary precautions to endure the heat. Yeah, I’m lecturing you tailgaters, although things will naturally cool off after sundown.

The rain-suppressing, heat generating “Death Ridge” has been west-wiggling away from us, allowing a few stray showers to pop up in Kentucky and wander south. Here is the HRRR model’s take on things Thursday 3 PM – 8 PM:

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We are tracking these showers on radar. They’re weakening a bit as they move south, but are still worth watching.

With kick off at 8:15 p.m., and Live On The Green already rocking, it’ll still be very humid and borderline uncomfortable. 87 is the expected kick-off temp, with clouds falling apart from showers/thunderstorms that pass by. No shower should rain anything out. The heat index is forecast to be in the low 90s at the start of the game, decreasing thereafter. GO DORES!! (Still hurts to say).

Friday – Afternoon Thunderstorm; Heat Index Up To 100 – High 95

7a 74 . 10a 86 . 1p 93 . 4p 95 . 7p 88 . 10p 81.

Another very, HOT uncomfortable day. The “Death Ridge” is still hanging around, but far enough away that a stray isolated afternoon/evening shower or thunderstorm may still bubble up.

Side note: It’s just as hot in Minnesota. Schools are being closed until after the Labor Day weekend because of the heat.

(Editor’s Note: We’re not throwing stones at you, Minnesota. We close schools and panic at the mere forecast of s–w.)

Saturday – Afternoon Thunderstorms Possible; Heat Index Up To 98 – High 93

7a 75 . 10a 85 . 1p 91 . 4p 93 . 7p 87 . 10p 81.

Still hot, with increasing rain chances as our Death Ridge continues to move further west. (Editor’s Note: It’s trying to kill Walter White, who thoroughly deserves it). Some of the storms may be strong. As usual, we’ll be watching on Twitter @NashSevereWx.

The Heat Is On; Complete Vanderbilt/Ole Miss Forecast

Tonight – Clear – High 91

Y’all, I just about melted today! It was too HOT for recording stadium construction for my advanced TV production class, which required walking around campus all day. I was in Canada earlier this Summer and was really spoiled with the “Summer weather” or … I mean … umm … Fall weather. Thanks, “Death Ridge.”

(Editor’s Note: it’s fair to say the previous paragraph, brought to you by The Intern, could have been written by a diva).

Hope you’re keeping cool and avoiding long hours outside in the sun. No chance of rain tonight.

Thursday – Sunny; Heat Index Up To 98 – High 93

7a 73 . 10a 83 . 1p 92 . 4p 93 . 7p 89 . 10p 81.

The “Death Ridge” will still have us tightly in its grasp. Hot, humid, and sunny. Although we can’t completely rule out an afternoon shower, we don’t think it’ll rain.

Kick Off at 8:15 p.m. is a hardship for young football fans facing school Friday morning, but it’ll be nice for those going to the game. 87 is the expected kick-off temp, with a few dissipating clouds. The heat index is forecast to be in the low 90s at the start of the game, decreasing thereafter. GO DORES!!

No weather problems expected on your way home from the game (or turning off your T.V.).

Friday – Random Afternoon Thunderstorms Possible; Heat Index Up To 100 – High 94

7a 73 . 10a 86 . 1p 92 . 4p 94 . 7p 88 . 10p 81.

The hottest day of the week also brings us our best chance of rain for the week. The “Death Ridge” will begin to slide to the west, loosening its grip.

A few afternoon thunderstorms will be possible without the Death Ridge there to suppress them. Most of us will probably just stay hot and sunny. But, no one know where the thunderstorms will pop up.

The rest of the weekend will be like Friday, with the heat being knocked down a bit. Each day will bring slight (mostly afternoon) rain chances.

The “Death Ridge” of Heat; Vandy/Ole Miss Forecast

(Editor’s Note – It is unclear whether The Intern’s references to the “Death Ridge” should come with a warning to pregnant women, bubble-boys, and children. So, proceed at your own risk).

Tonight – Clear – High 89

Behold, below, the “Death Ridge” [cue music] of high pressure which ensnares us.  The Death Ridge deflects weather systems. No low pressure system is going to get close to or otherwise push this thing out of the way until it decides it wants to leave.

death ridge

Blame the Death Ridge for the heat.

Wednesday – Sunny – High 93

7a 72 . 10a 85 . 1p 92 . 4p 93 . 7p 88 . 10p 80.

No chance of rain. It won’t be too humid, so the “feels like” temp will only hit 94 or so.

Thursday – Mostly Sunny; Heat Index Up To 100 – High 94

7a 74 . 10a 85 . 1p 94 . 4p 94 . 7p 89 . 10p 81.

The hottest day of the week.

The “Death Ridge” will move away a bit, allowing a very slight chance of an afternoon/evening thunderstorm.

Dress for hot weather for the Vanderbilt vs Ole Miss game. It’ll be 88 at kickoff, with the heat index in the 90s. The temp will fall into the low 80s by the end of the game. Rain is possible, but unlikely. Go Dores!!

(Editor’s Note: The Intern is from Oxford. He is toe-ing the company line with the “Go Dores” line. This earned him a reprieve from re-roofing Will’s house.)

Friday & The Weekend – High 94 Each Day, Small Chance of Afternoon Showers/Storms

Building Heat & Humidity. Friday Will Be Miserable.

I’m departing from our usual format because the weather is not going to change much. Here’s what you need to know:

1.     We will bake this week.  High temperatures: tomorrow (91), Wednesday (92), Thursday (93), Friday (93), and the weekend (94 each day).

Those to our west will bake more than we will. Check out the heat Friday according to the GFS model:

Hopscotch

2.     Rain is not expected.  Behold the following probabilities of precipitation: tomorrow (0%), Wednesday (0%), Thursday (20%), Friday – Sunday (10%).

3.     Humidity will increase.  Our dewpoints (low 60s) have been manageable today and will be manageable tomorrow. Wednesday, the dewpoints will hop into the mid 60s. By Thursday, it’ll be in the upper 60s, and by Friday, the dewpoint should hit 70. Add to that a high temp of 93, and the heat Friday will be oppressive. High school football teams should stock up on Gatorade and be prepared to evaluate players for signs of heat exhaustion.

Clear & Hot Summer Weather Continues

Tonight Clear High 87

Hope everyone had a good “sundae”!

Clear and a humid through the evening.

Monday – Sunny – High 90

7a 69 . 10a 80 . 1p 87 . 4p 90 . 7p 85 . 10p 76

More sunny, hot, and not too humid summer weather.

Tuesday – More Sunshine – High 91

7a 69 . 10a 81 . 1p 88 . 4p 91 . 7p 87 . 10p 78.

Still staying high and dry. May want consider giving the plants a water if you have not already.

Hot & Dry Through Wednesday

Tonight – Clear – High 89

We did not make it to 90 once again today because of the very weak cold front that pushed through. Things were still HOT though, especially compared to how cool the rest of our Summer has been. I spent most of my day waiting in line for football tickets. Now it’s time for the pool, BBQ, & sweet tea.

 

Sunday – Sunny – High 89

7a 69 . 10a 80 . 1p 87 . 4p 89 . 7p 84 . 10p 76

The sun will be shining. Clouds are not even forecast in the sky. That is what you call a strong ridge of high pressure!

Monday – More Sunshine – High 90

7a 79 . 10a 80 . 1p 87 . 4p 90 . 7p 85 . 10p 77.

Literally no change from Sunday to Monday. This weather is here to stay for at least a few days. Summer!

Maybe Another Shower Tonight; Hot, Humid, Rain-Free Weekend

Tonight – Few Showers – High 89

We did not make it to 90 today. That will not be a problem next week.

A weak cold front is very slowly pushing storms through Middle Tennessee.

Our NWS says: “Looks like the main threat from storms [over the] next couple of hours will be wet microbursts from water loading.” Radar show storms, which were once severe, are already weakening as they drop south from Kentucky. They should arrive around 6 pm or so. We may see a few bolts of lightning and brief heavy downpours.

The HRRR model below did not initialize very well with its latest run, so it may actually be under-doing things for us. Remember, use models for guidance, not Gospel.

HRRR models thinking Friday 4 PM – 9 PM:

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By 7 pm this evening, things should be a lot quieter as the rain/showers rumble to our south.

Saturday – Hot & Humid – High 91

7a 71 . 10a 82 . 1p 88 . 4p 90 . 7p 86 . 10p 77

The rain is gone! Lets hope you get some rain from tonight’s storms, because a dry spell begins Saturday. Pull the BBQ and coolers out and embrace what’s left of the Summer.

Sunday – Sunshine – High 90

7a 70 . 10a 81 . 1p 88 . 4p 90 . 7p 86 . 10p 77.

Hot and humid. A high pressure system is building a huge ridge across the eastern USA. This results in little to no change in the forecast from Saturday to Tuesday (and maybe longer).

Thunderstorms Possible Friday; Hot But Clear Weekend

(Editor’s Note: The website has returned from its punishment/hostage situation/tantrum/bender/vacation/trip to dentist/trying out for American Idol/heat stroke/bar exam or whatever else it was doing yesterday.  I think it was just messing with The Intern. He fears idle hands.

One of the reasons America is Great is because we can weather these storms. Together.)

Tonight – Mostly Clear for Live On The Green!

For the first time in 11 days, we hit 90!

For tonight, the models are keeping things mostly quiet. It’s unlikely we will see a sprinkle or shower.

Friday – Thunderstorms Possible – High 91

7a 73 . 10a 82 . 1p 88 . 4p 91 . 7p 86 . 10p 78

There still is a chance for fog to develop in the morning, especially in low lying areas.

The rest of the forecast is a bit tricky.

A weak cold front is expected to pass by Friday early afternoon. The front would be the focal point for thunderstorm development, except that dry, more stable air is expected to move in right behind the front.

If we pump in enough humidity and daytime heating before the front arrives with its drier, more stable air, we could see some decent thunderstorms. If not, those storms will develop further south, keeping us hot and dry. Our NWS has posted a 40% chance of thunderstorms.

This is the Hi-Res NAM model’s take on things Friday 9 AM – 6 PM. Remember, use models for guidance, not Gospel.

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Saturday – Sunshine – High 91

7a 72 . 10a 82 . 1p 89 . 4p 91 . 7p 86 . 10p 77.

Heat and (but not oppressive) humidity! The sun will be shining and the temps will be high. This may be the hottest day of what has been an unseasonably cool month. No rain is expected. Sunday looks a lot like Saturday.

You may see this forecast again, possibly through the early part of next week, maybe even longer.